FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Like a sleek Mercedes crunched between two freight trucks, Europe’s economy is being knocked off course by the conflict between the U.S. and China over trade.
The bill for damages from the U.S-China collision will likely be reflected in new growth figures due Wednesday that could show Europe’s economic motor, Germany, is stalled or shrinking. Beyond that, economists said there are signs that years of declining unemployment since the depths of the Great Recession and the eurozone debt crisis may be ending.
And if the trade wars escalate to include higher U.S. tariffs on cars made in Europe, the picture could look even worse.
The heart of the matter is Germany, Europe’s largest economy and a key trade partner of the U.S. and China.
Exports amount to almost half the German economy — 47 percent, according to the World Bank — as its companies play a dominant role in global markets for luxury autos and complex industrial machinery. Supply chains from Germany extend into neighboring eurozone countries as well, while German profits are often invested in factories in places like Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. Great when trade is booming — but it means Germany remains more vulnerable than less open economies such as Portugal or France to a slowdown in global trade in goods and services.
And that is what’s happening.
German has spewed wretched economic data for weeks: an 8 percent annual fall in exports in June, a 1.5 percent drop in industrial production in June from the month before, three times bigger than expected. Surveys of executives suggest the industrial sector is in recession, with consumer demand and services propping up the economy.
However, the damage from trade uncertainty may be spreading to consumers and companies that do business only at home.
While German unemployment remains low at 3.1 percent, job gains have stalled recently. Growth in the eurozone as a whole halved to 0.2 percent in the second quarter compared with the first. Italy, the third largest economy in the eurozone, was another weak spot, with zero growth after only 0.1 percent in the first quarter.
One unsettling sign is that investment in new plants and equipment across the eurozone has weakened this year even as factory capacity utilization remains relatively strong . That is a departure from the longer term pattern and suggests managers don’t see stronger sales and profits ahead.
Ironically, trade between Germany and the U.S. and between Germany and China is holding up pretty well. It’s mainly the uncertainty about the outcome of the clash between U.S. President Donald Trump and the Chinese Communist leadership that has been weighing on business confidence and deterring decisions to invest and buy across global markets. Last week, Trump imposed a 10 percent tariff on an additional $300 billion in Chinese goods effective Sept. 1.
As a result, research firm Oxford Economics forecasts world trade growth of just 1.2 percent this year, far below last year’s 4.9 percent rise.
There are a few small benefits for Europe. While the U.S. and China ramped up barriers against each other, the U.S. has largely kept tariffs on European products the same, except for introducing charges on steel and aluminum imports. China has actually lowered charges on exports from the 19 European countries that use the euro.
“That mildly positive effect for the eurozone has been, however, more than offset by the hit to business sentiment and demand,” said economist Florian Hense at Berenberg bank. “As uncertainty about the future trading regime is pervasive, businesses have cut their outlook and their investment plans. The slowdown in Chinese actual and potential growth, which the trade tensions have exacerbated, also weighs on demand for eurozone exports.” Hense thinks the U.S. and China will eventually cut a deal and remove the uncertainty.
However, for now the drawn-out trade discussion continues to corrode optimism.