As we begin to transition away from Thanksgiving and usher in the start of the winter holidays, many Central Missouri residents used last week's warmer weather to set up their outdoor holiday decorations.
Every year, I along with most meteorologists that I know get asked, "What are the chances that we see a white Christmas?"
Obviously, a forecast is very dependent on current conditions and weather patterns across the nation. Because of this, it can be hard to predict our Christmas Day weather conditions with certainty more than a few days out.
That being said, we can look at past Christmas Days to see how many recorded snowfall. Climatic data is a great tool for gauging the possibilities for a certain weather event to occur at a certain time.
When referencing past weather data and climatic data in general, it is important to note weather data has only been collected for a little over 100 years. Earliest records of weather data collection come from the late 1800s. Because of this, we do have a limited amount of data to learn from and work with. Within recent decades, more detailed and consistent data tracking has become widespread. I pulled the highest recorded snowfall data for Christmas Day for the central and eastern portions of Missouri from the earliest records that are online which were from 1893. This data was quite surprising.
There were 26 records for snow on Christmas Day for the noted area. The highest recorded Christmas snowfall was 7 inches of snow in Bowling Green in 2004. Five of those 26 records fell short of one inch of snowfall. The highest Christmas Day snowfall for the Columbia and Jefferson City region came on Dec. 25, 1985 when Jefferson City saw an accumulated 6 inches of snowfall.
In total, there were more than 175 records for Christmas Days that I was able to find. Looking at all of that data, it appears we are more likely to see a normal Christmas rather than a white, snowy Christmas.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, our chances are for a slightly warmer than average next three months of winter, and our precipitation chances are on par with Missouri's average precipitation chances for this time of the year.
For those hoping for a snowy Christmas Day, keep an eye on the forecast as we approach the end of December. For those who may be traveling or just do not want to shovel snow on the holiday, historical records suggest our chances are not incredibly high to see snowfall on Christmas Day.
Maddie Est has worked as a broadcast meteorologist and marine meteorologist since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2021. She has worked with the Missouri Climate Center and conducted research on atmospheric blocking while at MU.