In recent weeks, Missouri educators and parents alike have been poring over the 2014 annual performance reports issued by the state for each school district.
Although some gains were made statewide in high school end-of-course exams, overall academic performance appeared to be falling, according to an evaluation of MAP testing results.
When students take the MAP exams - an annual set of mandatory standardized tests taken by students - their performances are categorized in four ways: "Advanced," "Proficient," "Basic" and "Below Basic."
Statewide - in English/language arts, math and science - the average rate of proficiency has fallen.
With the exception of seventh-graders, the percentage of Missouri students doing well in language arts dropped between 2013 and 2014. Test takers performed a bit better in math than in English, but those scores mostly dropped as well.
Jefferson City's performance mirrored the state's.
In English/language arts, Jefferson City students have been on a steady, downward trend. In 2011, 58.6 percent of students were considered proficient or advanced in this subject area. By 2014, that number had dropped to 51.4 percent.
In math, students have seen their scores decline. In 2011, 59.2 percent of students were proficient or advanced. By 2014, that percentage had dropped to 51.4.
Although the district saw some slight improvements in science last year, students' scores are on a downward trend in that category, too. In 2011, 57.6 percent of students were proficient or advanced; by 2014, that number had dropped to 53.2 percent.
What does 2014 data mean for future?
Part of the rationale explaining this year's lower scores may be due to the transition to the Missouri Learning Standards, which include elements of Common Core, and which educators say are more rigorous than previous expectations. There may be some misalignment in the curriculum being taught and the new Missouri Learning Standards.
"The most recent MAP testing used an old test that is not aligned with the new Common Core standards that have been implemented by staff the past several years," Superintendent Brian Mitchell wrote in a memo. "That is definitely a reason why some would suggest MAP scores statewide declined."
Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) staff say the 2014 test was aligned to standards being taught at the time it was given.
But starting in the spring of 2015, the state of Missouri will be using assessments from the Smarter, Balanced program for English and math students in grades 3-8. Field tests have already taken place in selected schools.
How will that transition work?
Mitchell sees it as a new benchmark.
Sarah Potter, spokesperson for DESE, wrote in an email: "The Missouri Assessment Program (MAP) will include new items from Smarter Balanced in spring of 2015. We expect that with higher standards for districts and therefore the assessments, performance will see a dip. We expect to set new cut scores for proficiency levels as a result. That should allow us to use the updated assessments without penalizing districts."
Because of all the changes, Mitchell recommended not placing undue emphasis on the 2014 scores.
"The issue though is, next school year, it's going to be a different tool, tied to the Common Core standards," he said. "It puts everyone in a "unique' position ... that the assessment tool that we were just using - which wasn't tied to the standards that we were implementing - goes away.
"This year becomes our baseline year, going forward. So, that's the challenge everywhere ... to what extent can we use the most recent data? Knowing the assessment is going to be completely different?"
School officials have seen some sample test questions from the Smarter Balanced exam, but have not read the exam in its entirety, he said.
"I don't think there is any question that everyone believes it's going to be a much more rigorous assessment," Mitchell said. "And we already know that the Common Core standards are more rigorous than what we were utilizing before."
Mitchell is anticipating that scores might continue to fall, especially since younger students will also have to acclimate to an online testing environment requiring keyboarding skills they may not have acquired yet.
"Folks across the country are expecting student performance scores to drop, significantly. I've heard as much as 20 percent, just because of the increased rigor of the assessment," he said.
Potter doesn't expect a dramatic decline in Missouri, since the state already had high standards and challenging tests.
Mitchell sees MSIP 5 - the fifth version of the Missouri School Improvement Program - as a "growth tool."
"You certainly like to see changes for the positive from one year to the next. But you also want to see trending over time in the right direction. Sometimes you may have had three years of growth and in a row, and then you have a dip. That doesn't mean you throw out everything you were doing," he said.
Blair Oaks fared better on its 2014 annual performance report. The district exceeded the state average in numerous subjects by an average of 16.4 percentage points, according to the state. In two categories, eighth-grade science and American History, Blair Oaks outpaced the state average by more than 30 percentage points.
Superintendent Jim Jones attributed the success to the "sheer hard work of our students, faculty and staff in general."
But Jones cautioned against taking standardized test scores too seriously.
"There are 174 days in a school year. We're looking at a three-day snapshot," he said.
But he still sees value in paying attention to what the data is telling educators.
"The challenge now is using the scores to further the teaching," Jones said. "We've got to do things that are going to make a difference."
He acknowledged there might be some differences between the MAP and Smarter Balanced exams.
"But there's still going to be a lot of similarities," he added. "The changes will be subtle. But I don't think the changes are going to be so extreme that we can't use some of the data."
He said some educators may have made the same arguments when the state transitioned from the MMAT to the MAP in the mid-1990s.
"Our challenge is to worry about the test that is coming next," Jones said. "We never want to get to that point where we're satisfied."
Jones, a former math teacher, said the timing of standardized tests can mean a big difference in how students perform. He said some years the pace of his teaching was slower. Other years, an excessive number of snow days sidelined learning. And occasionally, the testing window moved forward.
Some of the discrepancies in achievement between larger, urban districts and smaller, rural ones may be due to demographic differences such as race, poverty and parental involvement. (Quite a striking difference exists in the demographics of the two communities, with about 13 percent of Blair Oaks' student eligible for free- and reduced-priced lunches, compared with 53 percent in Jefferson City.)
"Most of our students' book bags are looked into every night," Jones said. "Education really has not changed much ... you have that triangle of home, church and school. When all three forces work together, they can do some extraordinary things."
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