Brian Lehman drove through the countryside near Versailles one September day and got lost in time.
To his left, valleys of golden dry husks of corn sat baking in the mid-day sun, waiting to be harvested. To his right, field upon field of waist-high soybean plants sat, a few specks of yellow dotting the rows of emerald green plants, as they too waited for the harvest.
Lehman's family began farming this land in 1892, and this day could've been any summer day over the last 125 years.
"It's something different every day," Lehman said of his love for farming. "You're not stuck in the same thing every day."
While the skies overhead were clear, other clouds were gathering and threatening everything he and his ancestors worked so hard to build.
This season, crop prices sagged and pinched Missouri farmers for a fifth straight year, bringing back memories of the crippling farm bust of the 1980s.
Ag industries employ thousands of people in the region and contribute more than $1 billion to the regional economy. Experts and farmers hold out hope that prices will turn around, but in this boom-and-bust business, when or if that will happen looms large.
Corn prices peaked near $8 per bushel in late 2012 and fell to around $3 per bushel this summer, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Soybean prices peaked in mid-2012 around $17 per bushel and fell to just below $9 per bushel early last year. Soybean prices later recovered slightly, but the USDA expects soybeans to again fetch around $9 per bushel this season.
In a September report, the last month for which data was available, the USDA lowered its 2017-18 price forecast for average U.S. corn prices by 10 cents to a range of $2.80-$3.60 per bushel. U.S. average soybean prices were lowered by 10 cents to a range of $8.35-$10.05 per bushel.
Blake Hurst, president of the Missouri Farm Bureau, said some farmers with tremendous corn yields may see profits, but not many. Farmers may see a small profit on soybeans, Hurst said, but more will likely see break-even prices.
"It's not profitable," Hurst said. "The vast majority of farmers (at) those prices will see a loss."
The USDA forecast predicted corn production of 14.2 billion bushels, an increase of 32 million bushels from August. An expected soybean crop of 4.43 million bushels increased August predictions by 50 million bushels.
Lehman farms about 500 acres of corn and 500 acres of soybeans. Signs of his family's mark through the decades lie everywhere on his farm. On one patch a few hundred yards from a machine shed sits a log-and-rock cabin Lehman built in 1980 with rocks from an old house on the back side of the farm.
Lehman's father, Quintin, grew up on the farm. At age 93, he still lives in the same house he lived in as a child. Strolling past row upon row of corn and soybeans, and a handful of cattle, Lehman said he loves the simplicity of farm life.
In particular, he loves that his son, daughter and nieces can fish in a pond on the property and help him manage the cows, opportunities people in cities don't have.
Still, Mid-Missouri farmers like Lehman are caught in a global game of chicken, tiny cogs in the wheel that turns the world's ag economy. In its report, the USDA raised export predictions for March corn from Brazil. The agency also raised soybean imports for China and Thailand because of higher U.S. exports.
Farmers face a world oversupplied with corn and soybeans, which causes prices to sag. Yet they feel left with little choice but to produce more to make up for the difference in price.
Lehman wants to expand and produce more to take advantage of discounts offered by seed and fertilizer companies to larger farmers. Prices of inputs like land, seed, fertilizer and fuel haven't declined as fast as crop prices offered to farmers, though.
Lehman owns about 50 percent of the land he farms and rents other portions from his father and other landowners. Rental prices for row crop farms in the area usually cost about $100-$150 per acre, meaning he could pay at least much as $50,000 per year for the 500 acres he rents.
The same land would normally cost $1,500-$2,000 per acre to buy, he said. Amish and Mennonite communities near Versailles artificially inflate the price to buy land to between $7,100-$8,600 per acre.
"You can't farm it for that. There's no way in my lifetime I could make that pay," Lehman said. "That's one thing, they don't make more land."
Based on a conservative estimate, he said farmers can spend $90 per acre just on corn seed, meaning he could pay about $50,000 just on seeds. Another budget in a pamphlet for a local farm association sitting in his pickup truck shows farmers can spend as much as $294 per acre on seed.
"The seed companies worldwide, they're not worried about the Midwest farmer," Lehman said. "Even though production is there, seed hasn't went down. Fertilizer hasn't went down."
Jay Fischer, who owns a farm northeast of Jefferson City, said the way prices of farm equipment rose over the last 15 years feels arbitrary.
"You could buy a new combine in 2002 for $140,000," Fischer said. "Today, that same combine would probably cost you $450,000-$475,000."
The latest boom
Many factors drove commodity prices higher in the mid-2000s. A 2011 Purdue University study said historically low interest rates coming out of the Great Recession pushed farmland values to record highs.
Oil prices meanwhile surged to a high of $132.08 per barrel in July 2008 and stayed above $100 through April 2012, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. High oil prices created the need for a cheaper renewable fuel that came in the form of corn-based ethanol.
Between 2006-16, corn production increased from 10.5 billion bushels nationwide to a record 15.1 billion bushels. Soybean production increased from 3.2 billion bushels to 4.3 billion during the same time frame.
Yields also went up, with the average farmer getting about 150 bushels per acre of corn in 2006 and just over 170 bushels per acre in 2016. Soybean yields increased from about 43 bushels per acre in 2006 to just over 50 bushels in 2016.
Corn used in ethanol production increased from about 1 billion bushels in 2005 to about 5 billion in 2011, according to the USDA. A weak dollar during the recession also created demand for U.S. crop exports.
"When I say there's been a drop in farm income, understand it was from very healthy levels," Hurst said. "It's a cyclical business. It's part of the deal."
The high prices might ultimately have led farmers to their current predicament.
"We were making money, so we grew," Hurst said. "Now that increased production has outpaced demand for the product. The product is being sold, but not at the proper price."
A dead cat bounce
The USDA said in a separate September report that farm incomes may finally have hit a floor, and it expected farm incomes to increase this season for the first time in four years. The agency forecast net cash farm income to increase 12.6 percent, or $11.2 billion, to $100.4 billion in 2017.
Still, Hurst said he's seeing farmers struggle. He said economists often describe this trend as a "dead cat bounce," and said while farm incomes increased this season, he sees the increase as temporary before they trend downward again.
"We'll see a little turnaround this year because we've dropped so far so fast we almost had to go the other way," Hurst said.
Farmers remain hopeful prices will turn around soon and allow them to inject more money into their communities.
The stakes are high.
Agriculture, forestry and related industries had an economic impact of $88.4 billion and employed 378,232 people in Missouri during 2016, according to the Missouri Department of Agriculture. Those jobs had a payroll of $17.5 billion, contributing $2.2 billion in state and local taxes and another $4 billion in federal taxes.
These industries had an economic impact of $1.18 billion and employed 8,050 in Cole, Callaway, Morgan and Moniteau counties last year, according to the Missouri Department of Agriculture.
Gary Wheeler, executive director of the Jefferson City-based Missouri Soybean Association, said low commodity prices affect rural Missourians' ability to purchase new cars and give money to local schools and groups like the 4-H, VFW or American Legion.
"When commodity prices go low, it affects everyone," Wheeler said. "You've got to look at these as all small businesses."
The need to diversify
Sitting in the Missouri River bottoms just northeast of Jefferson City, Fischer's farm offers picturesque views of nearby rocky bluffs that on clear days loom as large as mountains in the distance. Fischer farms a couple thousand acres of corn, soybeans, alfalfa, oats, watermelons and cantaloupes.
He's probably best known locally as the owner of Fischer Farms' Pumpkin Patch, which gives families a place to pick pumpkins, navigate a corn maze and participate in other educational activities each fall.
Unlike Lehman, Fischer tilled his own path into farming. Fischer grew up in Jefferson City but decided he wanted to farm. So he sharecropped after high school and bought a couple parcels of land. His pumpkin business started as a hobby when he planted pumpkins with his grandfather at age 9 and sold them to local supermarkets.
Fischer stopped selling pumpkins wholesale years ago, and his current business started with a newspaper ad that simply asked readers to come pick their own pumpkin on his farm.
On Sept. 20, Fischer's farm buzzed as he and his family watered flowers, hung decorations and finished readying the farm for the fall season.
Fischer spends about as many hours on his pumpkin and watermelon business as he does his row crop business. Today, he concedes the pumpkin patch makes up 50 percent of his business.
"I used to view it as an extra source of income, and now it's just become part of the business," he said. "It's a vital part of my operation."
Lehman, too, said farmers need an extra source of income to protect against sagging crop prices and hopes his 60 head of cattle will provide a buffer this year.
1980s farm bust
During the farm bust of the 1980s, the farm bankruptcy rate topped Great Depression levels. The worst since the Great Depression, the crisis forced banks to repossess many Midwest farms and many other farmers to sell.
Fischer concedes times feel tough now. They felt tougher when he broke into farming 30 years ago.
In the 1970s, exports of wheat and soybeans nearly tripled because of a weak dollar and a key trade deal that opened the Soviet Union to American exports. Low interest rates allowed farmers to hoard new land, which caused a sharp spike in farm prices.
In the 1980s, as the dollar strengthened and interest rates rose, the value of farm assets plunged and farm values dropped by more than 40 percent, according to the Purdue University report. Fischer said recent bumps feel nothing like the 1980s yet.
"(The) '80s were tough," Fischer said. "Everybody was going bankrupt, and farms were getting sold on the courthouse steps. We were farming basically for government payments. It seems like we are going back to those tough days, though."
Unlike past farm busts, Wheeler said, crop exports haven't fallen.
"We continue to do quite well with exports," he said. "What it boils down to on a global basis is that all farmers continue to produce more and more, and sometimes that affects price."
Farm debt increased from about $200 million in 2006 to just below $400 million in 2016, according to the Farm Bureau. Still, Hurst said the key difference between today's struggles and the 1980s bust is that most farmers have a lot of equity.
"Farmers' debt situation is pretty good," Hurst said. "We're not seeing anything like we saw in the '80s, but it definitely has put some stress on farm businesses."
An optimistic outlook
As he stood outside a corn field, chomping at the bit for the harvest to begin, Lehman's spirits remained upbeat. He expected a good crop at about 150-170 ears per bushel.
Last year, he said, he sold most of his corn for $3.30 per bushel and made just more than break-even. This year, he expected the crop to be a little bigger. He expects his soybean yields to be up, but also said the low prices could hurt him.
"We're not going to break records, but we're going to be above the last four-year average," Lehman said.
When asked if he'd break even, Lehman said, "We should, I'm hoping, with the yield I've got, unless prices somehow fall completely off the chart."
More than anything, price and when prices will rebound sit at the top of mind for farmers now.
"That's always the big question," said Joni Ross Harper, an agronomist with the University of Missouri's Cole County Extension office. "Corn prices are probably going to be where they're at."
Hurst felt concerned about short-term prices but optimistic about long-term prices.
"I think we've got another year or two of this, but low prices build demand," Hurst said. "We'll fund people to buy things we produce."
Fischer said it could take a drought, like the one that devastated the Midwest in 2012, to send prices back up.
"By the time we get to 2020, we should see a rebound in commodities prices," Fischer said. "But a lot of things affect that."