Missouri's economy isn't exactly on the rise - and certainly isn't leading its neighbors - according to research by an economic research firm hired by the Missouri Chamber of Commerce and Industry to profile the state's economic indicators.
"What we found is that in many, many factors, you guys showed up in the middle of rankings," Ted Abernathy, managing partner of Economic Leadership LLC, said during a presentation at the Missouri Chamber's 2016 State of Business event Thursday. "You didn't show up at the bottom; you didn't show up at the top; you showed up in the 25-35 ranking of most things."
The Missouri Chamber announced its Missouri 2030 initiative last February, a 15-year strategic plan aimed at reviving the state's economy that also factored in a Gallup survey of 1,000 Missouri CEOs. The data Abernathy presented last week echo the concerns that fueled Missouri 2030's plans to bolster workforce development efforts and infrastructure, strengthen the state's business climate and unify the statewide business community.
At 0.9 percent job growth over the past year (December 2014 through December 2015), Missouri's employment is growing at about half the rate of the United States at 1.9 percent. And it's behind the pace of most neighboring states, leading only Illinois, Oklahoma and Kansas.
The employment picture is similarly bleak when viewed over the last four years (December 2014 through December 2015). Missouri's jobs grew 2.7 percent, compared to 6 percent U.S. employment growth and leading only Illinois and Oklahoma.
"The states that are doing really well in these charts are really aggressive," Abernathy said. "They're trying to improve lots of pieces of their economic puzzle."
The forecast for Missouri's next 10 years is even more dismal: economists project the state's employment will grow by 7.9 percent from 2015-25 - the second-lowest projected growth among Missouri's neighboring states and off the national pace of a projected 11.7 percent.
While the state's manufacturing industry remains strong, Missouri's job growth is stagnant in sectors that are growing nationally.
"Other than education and health, which is about even, really low job growth in a lot of sectors: low in leisure and hospitality, low in financial services, really low in professional and technical services, which is one of the fastest-growing parts of the national economy. So, a lot of white-collar jobs are left on the table here in Missouri," Abernathy said.
Also, Missouri's gross domestic product grew by only 0.9 percent in 2014, less than half of the U.S. rate of 2.2 percent.
"There are a lot of places that I've worked that are in a lot worse shape than Missouri as a state. But you're solidly in the middle, and it doesn't look like your numbers are going up firmly," Abernathy said. "What will be the question is: In the future, can you find a way to be more competitive as you move forward?"
Since unveiling its Missouri 2030 strategic plan a year ago, the Missouri Chamber has made initial steps to up the state's appeal to potential new employers and to support the businesses already here.
"The Gallup research definitely showed us that we needed to support emerging and startup businesses and entrepreneurs out there. In response, we've added manpower to provide that in adding training and support for business planning and expansion resources in a new partnership with the Small Business Technology Development Centers," said Dan Mehan, Missouri Chamber president and CEO.
The chamber also formed the Missouri Chamber Federation, which to date has united 81 local chambers of commerce from across the state.
To better prepare the state's future workforce with labor skills, the chamber has adopted the MFG DAY and Manufacturing Institute's "Dream It. Do It." programs, which work to change the perception of the manufacturing industry among students.
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