The presidential primaries have long been a place where the nearly famous or longshots can grab the spotlight early in the process. Michelle Bachman led in Iowa at one point. Herman Cain surged to a lead on the basis of a good pizza ad - remember 9-9-9?
This cycle's unexpected contender is both famous and was a longshot. His favorite word is "I." He has a tendency to exaggerate. He's a world-class salesman.
He has the political world up in arms. The other candidates don't know how to respond. One political adviser said preparing for a debate for him was like "a NASCAR driver mentally preparing for a race knowing one of the drivers will be drunk."
Forget his tendency toward boorishness. Donald Trump is not a conservative and may not really be a Republican. He's pro-choice. He's anti-Second Amendment. He's long been an advocate for socialized medicine. He once proposed a 14.25 percent "net worth tax" on everyone with assets in excess of $10 million. In an interview this week with Sean Hannity, he let slip he was for a progressive, graduated income tax (like we have now) and thus, necessarily, against a flat or fair tax. He supports the use of eminent domain to take middle-class homes for economic development purposes. He supports a path to legalization for illegal immigrants. He supported the Wall Street bailouts. He has consistently opposed free trade agreements. His business has routinely relied on government subsidies plus four bankruptcies. And, oh, there's that small thing of his refusal in the first debate to say he'd support the Republican candidate for president if it wasn't him.
None of these policy positions, standing alone, should completely disqualify him with Republican voters. Some are worse than others. Nevertheless, parties interested in winning general elections should not demand lockstep conformity on every single issue.
But Trump is not merely a one-off candidate. Collectively, he's an all-off candidate. If you take his past statements at face value, Trump is just about as far to the left as Bernie Sanders. He trends more liberal than Hillary Clinton - to whom he has donated several times in the past. Any other candidate with his history on the issues would have been ram-rodded out of contention the day they announced. Heck, Jeb Bush has one of, if not the most conservative record of any governor of a big state in 20 years and he's been called, among many other things, a RINO.
So how is Trump not just hanging around but soaring in the polls? I think he has struck a nerve with Americans exhausted by political correctness and politicians who do not deliver as promised, but instead offer excuses and confused messages to avoid taking a real stand on anything. Donald Trump does not pause to ask a pollster what he should say next or ask a focus group what they think about his hideous hair. Americans crave authenticity. Trump loves bling and bluster, things that are not authentic, but he's also unafraid to speak his mind - and with conviction, even if his professed convictions change frequently.
Would it work for another presidential candidate? Not if they tried to be The Donald 2.0. (Insulting women is not a good long-term campaign strategy.) However, it would help anyone if they dropped the script, looked away from the teleprompter, and at least tried to speak from the heart.
Some candidates appear much more authentic than others. John Kasich, Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee are the best in the field at this. Perhaps coincidentally (or not), none of them are likely to win. The others seem more wooden. Jeb Bush looked like he didn't want to be there last week. Scott Walker seemed to have a set of talking points in his head that he'd been coached to spit out. Ted Cruz is our best debater, but his answers feel a bit contrived - that this is a big show and he knows he's the best actor on the stage.
I believe there are many good Republican candidates for president. At this point, I'm way too picky. I found myself dismissing one candidate during the debate because he refused to smile. I'm doubting another because of a third-tier policy issue that I really have no good reason to care that much about.
Rubio undoubtedly has the most charisma. He smiles and looks like he actually enjoys being there. He's our latest Happy Warrior. He's nearly Cruz's equal in technical debate and mastery of the issues. Yet, unlike Trump, Cruz or Bush, he really has lived a regular life. There's nothing elitist about him. The New York Times launched a hit on him this summer because he has struggled financially. If I had to vote today, it would be for Rubio.
Yet 17 candidates remain in the race. That's too many for proper focus. Debates don't work when there are so many candidates that the cameraman has a difficult time getting them all on screen. This field needs to be winnowed to six or seven - and for me, the quicker the better.
Can Trump win the Republican nomination? I highly doubt it.
At some point voters are going to take a hard look at the candidates' actual positions and histories on the relevant issues. I find it hard to believe that a candidate who has been a liberal on nearly every big issue can win the nod, no matter how authentic voters find them. What I don't doubt is that electing a Republican president will be the last chance we have to reverse eight years of damaging policies wrought by the Obama administration.
Addendum: No matter what happens, Trump's campaign should always be honored for creating the greatest hat in the history of presidential campaigns.
State Rep. Jay Barnes, R-Jefferson City, represents Missouri's 60th District.