WASHINGTON (AP) - You can do a lot with a billion dollars - but still not change much. This Election Day, it's likely to produce another Republican-led House that's a little different from the existing version.
Candidates, both political parties and hordes of corporate, labor, ideological and other groups have spent a record $1.1 billion on House races since this campaign cycle began last year, according the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. Yet by the time the last votes are counted Tuesday, Democrats may pick up a handful of districts but are widely expected to miss their goal of gaining the 25 additional seats they need to grab control of the chamber.
The reasons:
• The redrawing of congressional districts to reflect the new census. Both parties protected incumbents but Republicans shielded more.
• A preponderance of at-risk Republican-held seats the GOP offset with extra financial muscle.
• A close presidential race that has prevented either party from gaining a sweeping coattail advantage.
• Overarching national issues have not tilted the playing field to one side or the other.
"First and foremost it's redistricting," said Democratic pollster Dave Beattie, citing how GOP-led state legislatures were able to redraw congressional maps. "Institutionally, they were able in a redistricting year to protect the House gains they made in 2010," when Republicans captured House control.
Like most years, the vast majority of both parties' incumbents are likely to win. The percentage of victorious House members seeking re-election has dipped below 90 percent only twice since 1974 - in 2010 when the GOP stormed into control and 1992, when Democrats were hurt by a scandal involving the House post office.
Out of 435 House seats, around 60 are seriously competitive this year. About three dozen are currently held by Republicans and two dozen by Democrats. A handful of others are either new districts with no incumbents or races in which current House members are squaring off against each other.