COLUMBIA - Today's Missouri-Kentucky football game could be ugly.
In last week's rain-soaked game at Georgia, the Wildcats held their own in the first half as neither team could complete passes, but were eventually overcome by the Bulldogs' run game in a 21-0 loss, the program's first shutout loss since 2012.
There's rain in the forecast today in Lexington, Ky. Missouri (5-2, 2-1 Southeastern Conference) and Kentucky (3-4, 1-4 SEC) kickoff at 6:30 p.m. as the Tigers try to end a four-game losing streak in this series. The game will be broadcast on SEC Network.
To snap that losing streak, the Tigers will likely have to find a way to halt a quarterback-based run-first offense. Missouri has struggled to do so in losses to Vanderbilt and Wyoming, and found a way to beat Mississippi despite the speedy John Rhys Plumlee running for 143 yards and two scores.
The test this week: converted wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr., who posted career-bests of 13 receptions and 166 yards, as well as a 67-yard punt return touchdown, in the Wildcats' infamous (in Missouri) and famous (in Kentucky) 15-14 win in Columbia last season.
"Look, anytime he touches the ball you need to know, number one, before he's lined up, on the punt return game, quarterback, receiver, running back, wherever he is, you know they're a really good team when he's got the ball," Odom said of Bowden Jr. "We know that he's going to make some plays also. It'd be pretty foolish to think that we're going to shut (him) down completely. You want to limit those explosive plays, manage those to an extent. but also just be aware and understand that we've got to play assignment sound.
"They're going to try to feed him the ball, would be my guess, and you've got to be great tacklers, you've got to use your leverage the correct way. If you're going to take a shot, you better make sure that you've get somebody there to help you out."
Mark Stoops' program, in an expected step-back season after last year's dominant defense graduated most of its top-end talent, lost its third-string quarterback Nic Scalzo to an ACL injury before the start of the season, lost starting quarterback Terry Wilson to a knee injury against Florida, and second-string Sawyer Smith has been battling shoulder and wrist injuries. Smith did not play in Kentucky's last two games.
Bowden Jr., who had been his team's leading receiver before he was conscripted to QB duty, is 9-of-26 for 95 yards and a touchdown since taking over at starting quarterback. He's also carried the ball 41 times for 295 yards and two scores in those games.
Missouri head coach Barry Odom was complimentary of Wildcats' offensive coordinator Eddie Gran to deal with the hand he'd been dealt.
"Offensively, Eddie Gran and I have gone against each other a number of times and I've got a lot of respect for the way that he always finds a way to be creative and utilizing the skill set of his players," Odom said Tuesday. "A quarterback goes down, and then he comes up with a plan on what is best for his team and they're playing really well on that side of the ball. And the way that they're doing it is they understand on the approach that he is able to design the offense for them.
"I'm sure we're going to see No. 1 (Bowden Jr.) and No. 12 (Smith) both this week. It sounds like that Smith is healthy enough probably to get back in some action, and then obviously, No. 1 is as talented as players there is in college football."
Both Georgia and Kentucky largely abandoned the passing game last week, largely because of the weather. The Bulldogs' Jake Fromm was 9-of-12, but for just 35 yards, while Bowden Jr. was 2-of-15 for 75 yards. Georgia ran 43 times for 235 yards, while the Wildcats had 35 carries for 160 yards, 99 of which came from Bowden Jr.
Smith was called upon to enter in a big situation, with a chance to beat Florida on the line, and though the Gators escaped with a win, he threw for 267 yards and two scores. Since then, he has not played as well, completing 15-of-41 passes against Mississippi State for 233 yards and 11-of-32 passes for 90 yards against South Carolina.
"You've got to have two different ways to play them," defensive coordinator Ryan Walters said.
It's been a bad year for starting quarterbacks across the SEC. Missouri (Kelly Bryant), LSU (Joe Burrow), Auburn (Bo Nix), Georgia (Fromm) and Texas A&M (Kellen Mond) are the only programs in the conference to not split significant snaps or have to replace an injured starter under center at some point, with a hearty "knock on wood" for all five.
The Wildcats have had the worst of that luck, completely depleting their three-deep at the position already this season, but don't try to tell Missouri fans about Kentucky and luck.
Two years ago, driving for a shot at the winning score, J'mon Moore was trying to hand the ball back to an official after a catch in-bounds when Josh Allen, now with the Jacksonville Jaguars, intentionally knocked it loose. Moore got into position for the next play, the officials were slow to collect the ball and Missouri would up getting just one shot at the end zone, an incomplete pass from Drew Lock to Albert Okwuegbunam. The Wildcats won 40-34, and the SEC admitted in a statement after the game that if an official had seen the act, the clock would have stopped with :16 on the clock, rather than the :03 remaining when Lock spiked the ball.
Last season, Missouri was winning a defensive battle before Bowden Jr.'s punt return made it interesting. The Tigers were unable to convert a third down in the second half, and the defense, playing prevent, allowed Kentucky to march from its 19 to the Missouri 9-yard line in five plays. DeMarkus Acy was called for defensive pass interference on Ahmad Wagner after Wagner initiated contact on a fade route and caught the ball out of bounds. What would have been a 14-9 Missouri win turned into a 15-14 loss as the Wildcats scored on an un-timed down at the end of regulation.
The Tigers snapped an odd and unlucky losing streak once already this season by beating South Carolina soundly. If the offensive line and defense that showed up against the Gamecocks shows up again today, Missouri should be able to turn in a workman-like win. But that was not the case against Vanderbilt, and this team has shown it is not talented enough to beat anybody when getting poor effort from one side of the ball.