COLUMBIA - The best thing that can be said of Missouri's season-opening loss is it was a road game against a non-conference opponent.
The same can't be said for Georgia and Florida.
The Bulldogs lost at home to unranked South Carolina last Saturday 20-17 in two overtimes as turnovers, missed field goals and bad quarterback play plagued both teams. But the same Gamecocks team that the Tigers handled easily at Faurot Field three weeks previously gave Georgia fits, and Florida's loss to LSU put No. 22 Missouri (5-1, 2-0 Southeastern Conference) back atop the East.
The Tigers play three straight road games, starting today at 3 p.m. on the SEC Network against Vanderbilt (1-5, 0-3 SEC). With only conference games remaining on the schedule, Missouri's mission to win a third SEC East title is suddenly a little more realistic. It still has to win out, or come close, and the NCAA sanctions haven't yet been resolved, but the losses by Georgia and Florida open a few more avenues of possibility.
That starts with the team handling things against the Commodores this afternoon. Vanderbilt has held one opponent to fewer than 30 points all season, against Northern Illinois in its only win, and has given up an average of 46 points per game to conference opponents while scoring an average of 16.67 points against SEC opponents. The Tigers have scored an average of 36 points per game against conference opponents while allowing 20.5 points.
Vanderbilt is coming off a 34-10 loss at home to a UNLV team that came into the game with a 1-4 record. An inexperienced defense - the team's top three tacklers are all underclassmen, and the Commodores didn't start a senior on defense against the Rebels - has created just five total turnovers this season, tied for 112th nationally out of 130 FBS teams, and is bottom-100 nationally in sacks and tackles for loss.
When a defense can't get off the field by creating turnovers or creating havoc in the backfield, it's tough for that defense to keep opponents from moving the ball and scoring. That has been true for Vanderbilt. Against SEC teams, the Commodores are giving up an average of 306 rush yards per game and 7.64 yards per carry. For reference, Massachusetts, the worst FBS rushing defense, gives up 267 yards per game and 6.38 yards per carry on average. Vanderbilt's run defense in conference is off-the-board bad nationally.
It's not much better through the air. The Commodores have allowed offenses they've played to complete 63 percent of passes for 272 yards per game on average, and allowed 15 passing scores against just two interceptions. Missouri should not have an issue moving the ball today.
The other side of things is where it gets interesting for Vanderbilt. This is a team that came to Columbia a year ago and had a chance to win on the final drive of the game, but a Hail Mary fell incomplete.
"Offensively they've got eight returning starters from a year ago," Missouri coach Barry Odom said Tuesday. "Eight returning starters on that side of the ball, led by their tailback KeShawn Vaughn, who I think is one of the best running backs in college football. The receiver (Kalija) Lipscomb is talented making plays, think he's averaging 12 yards a catch, and the number of catches that he's got right now. And then their tight end (Jared) Pinkney is a matchup problem, and he creates matchups in the pass game, does a nice job."
On paper, the Commodores have a trio of skill position players as good as any in the SEC. Vaughn was the only returning running back in the SEC with more yards a year ago than Larry Rountree III, and Vaughn and Lipscomb and Rountree and Johnathon Johnson made Vanderbilt and Missouri the only two conference teams to return a 2,000-yard career rusher and a 2,000-yard career receiver. Pinkney was selected to the coaches' preseason All-SEC second team, while Albert Okwuegbunam was selected to the first team.
That trio, particularly Vaughn, had a field day a year ago. Vaughn had 15 carries for 182 yards and a touchdown, and also caught two passes for 14 yards and another touchdown. This season, 60.5 percent of the Commodores' total offense has gone through those three players, with Vaughn's 102 carries for 607 yards and 17 catches for 143 yards; Pinkney's 13 catches for 143 yards and Lipscomb's 30 receptions for 337 yards.
There's a reason Odom circled them during his Tuesday press conference: no other Vanderbilt back has more than 15 total carries this season, and just two other receivers have double-digit receptions, in freshman Cam Johnson (18 catches for 184 yards) and senior Justice Shelton-Mosley (11 catches for 73 yards).
The issue for the Commodores this season has been quarterback play. Kyle Shurmur was an experienced SEC quarterback in Derek Mason's system a year ago, but he's with the Kansas City Chiefs now. Ball State transfer Riley Neal has completed 59 percent of his passes for 1102 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. His 6.3 yards per pass attempt is tied for worst in the nation among 95 qualified starting quarterbacks.
Against conference opponents, Neal is completing 54.7 percent of his passes for an average of 143.7 yards per game and 5.0 yards per attempt. If Vanderbilt's receivers are getting open, he isn't hitting them, and the team's 43 pass plays of 10 or more yards is tied for 107th in the nation. Missouri, by contrast, is 49th, with 62 such plays. Neal is also not a threat to run, in the same way Mississippi's John Rhys Plumlee or even Kelly Bryant is. His 31 attempts have netted minus-21 yards.
None of this, though, means Missouri can, or will, roll into Nashville expecting to win. It is the Tigers' first road game since playing at Wyoming, and they haven't forgotten, especially now that other SEC East teams have stumbled in conference play.
"You listen to some of the things they've said and watch them play, and really they're a play here or there away from from it being completely different," Odom said when asked if it was a surprise to see Mason's team struggling at 1-5. "I'm sure that that they'll play their best game this week, and you know they'll rally behind the opportunity to go finish the season strong, because they'll follow his lead. That's kind of who he is on the knowledge that I've gotten in knowing him. They're a talented team that, I don't know, there's been a breakdown here or there. They could very easily, you know, their record could be a lot different, so we're going to prepare really really well, and then we need to go play our 'A' game, because I've got a feeling on what we're going to see on the other side."
Note: Defensive back/punt returner Richaud Floyd was back on the depth chart this week after leaving in the first half of the Mississippi game with a hamstring injury. When asked Tuesday if Floyd could play against Vanderbilt, Odom said, "I think so. Yeah, he looked better than expected today in practice so we'll kind of see how he responds tomorrow after having some activity today. So I would say it looks pretty promising."