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Nelson Otto

Jefferson City

Dear Editor:

There are two things I can count on occurring in August, one endless sneezing due to rag weed pollen and “July was the warmest month on record.” Usually every month between now and November there will be minor headlines that change from “hottest” to “warmest” to “one of the warmest” to “maybe it was one of the top five but scientists aren’t certain.” Just like how Christmas seems to show up in stores earlier each year well so does the push back on the “July is the hottest ever” So this year it already started on Aug. 2. Roy W. Spencer PD, climatologist, author and former NASA scientist, has a report called “July 2019 Was Not the Warmest on Record.” Dr. Spencer uses global reanalysis datasets. He explains how global reanalysis datasets work and how they are used in weather forecasting and that they have a proven track record and are much better than the other methods used by NASA. The only reanalysis data Dr. Spencer is aware of that is available in near real time to the public is from WeatherBell.com, and comes from NOAA’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2).

According to the report, the CFSv2 reanalysis dataset goes back to 1979 and that July 2019 was much cooler than three other Julys; 2016, 2002 and 2017 and so was the fourth warmest in 41 years and being only 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average he considers it not terribly alarming.

Wow, it isn’t even September yet and July has already been dropped in status to fourth warmest. Now I have nothing to look forward to in November, unless they drop it even further.

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