Press Box: No reason to rush to conclusion on Odom

News Tribune Sports Commentary

Missouri head coach Barry Odom watches his team line up for a play during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Kentucky, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2017, in Lexington, Ky. Kentucky won the game 40-34.
Missouri head coach Barry Odom watches his team line up for a play during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Kentucky, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2017, in Lexington, Ky. Kentucky won the game 40-34.

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UNMISS

In this photo released by the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), wounded civilians from Bor, the capital of Jonglei state and said to be the scene of fierce clashes between government troops and rebels, are assisted after being transported by U.N. helicopter to Juba, South Sudan, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2013. South Sudan's central government lost control of the capital of a key oil-producing state on Sunday, the military said, as renegade forces loyal to a former deputy president seized more territory in fighting that has raised fears of full-blown civil war in the world's newest country. (AP Photo/UNMISS)

Thanks to the late start to Missouri's first road game of the season, I was able to make a trip to Keeneland Racecourse, a thoroughbred course a few miles west of Kentucky's campus.

I stayed long enough for two races - I came to Kentucky for work, after all - and while I was there, though I felt the pull to do so, I refrained from betting on a horse.

There were several factors that influenced my decision: I don't know much about horse racing, and I was probably going to lose. It just wasn't worth it, even for the novelty.

That's also how I've approached the Tigers' football head-coaching situation. I know a little bit more about Missouri football than I do horse racing, but even if I were to guess about what the rest of the season holds, there's a high probability I'd be wrong.

At the beginning of the season, for instance, I optimistically estimated the team would be 3-1 entering its bye. The Tigers are 1-4 following the bye, and winless in the SEC. What Missouri does on the field during its last seven games is out of my hands entirely, and this season's on-field performance will factor into Jim Sterk's ultimate decision regarding 'True Son' Barry Odom's third year leading the Black and Gold. So guessing what Sterk may or may not do is pointless without knowing this season's results.

Tiger fans are justifiably worried about the future of the program after five games. The team didn't look competitive in the first half of either Purdue or Auburn at home, and didn't do enough late scoring to redeem themselves in the second halves of those games. Outscored 158-64 through four FBS games is not an ideal way to start a season. After the dismissal of Dimetrios Mason, the team is thin at wide receiver. A once-fearsome defense now struggles against both the run and the pass.

But South Carolina and Kentucky weren't blowouts. And firing a head coach usually means firing most of the support staff, too. If Jim Sterk decides to fire Odom after this year, for whatever reason, who does he get?

Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi all look like they're in similar situations to the Tigers, and Vols fans are far more vocal about wanting a new head coach than Missouri fans are. This is Butch Jones' fifth season, and he's 33-23 since taking that job in Knoxville, and 14-20 in conference play. Tennessee is 0-4 against Alabama, 2-3 against Georgia, 2-2 against Vanderbilt and 1-4 against Florida since Jones took over. At least he's 4-0 against Kentucky.

Mississippi will have to decide if interim head coach Matt Luke (currently 2-3, 0-2 SEC in Oxford) is their man. And Bret Bielema is 27-29 and a miserable 10-24 against SEC opponents in his fifth year at Arkansas, though he's protected by a $15.4-million buyout that drops to $11.7 in 2018. Odom is 5-12, 2-9 in the SEC, with a $1.35-million buyout.

All of those programs are currently more attractive and lucrative options for head coaches than Missouri is, and that's just within the SEC. Bielema and Jones each earn approximately $2 million more yearly than Odom, according to USAToday's salary database, and Hugh Freeze was bringing in nearly $5 million a year at Mississippi before he was ousted amid an NCAA investigation. Luke's pay was bumped to $1.16 million from the $660,000 he had been earning as co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach.

There's more to it than just money, too. If Sterk thinks Odom and his staff are recruiting well, or at least making the best of a situation worse than those outside of the program know about, he'll be even less likely to make a coaching change. There's also the tricky idea of whether or not firing Odom so soon sets a bad precedent and scares away potential hires.

If Missouri wouldn't even give a former player and longtime assistant three years, someone outside the program might reasonably think there's no guarantee Missouri would stick by them for three years, either.

When it comes to coaches, you'd prefer a thoroughbred that proves itself and then studs, mentoring assistants that are hired away a la Nick Saban, than one ridden too hard and then discarded.