COLUMBIA - Since the start of Southeastern Conference play, Missouri's offense has been hampered by the lack of a fully healthy Emanuel Hall and, against South Carolina, Nate Brown.
It's no secret what Hall at 100 percent brings to the Tigers' offense, which makes it all the more impressive. He has NFL-caliber speed and fantastic chemistry with Drew Lock, which is usually good for two deep catches per game, no matter the competition.
But Missouri (3-2, 0-2 SEC) will be without him for today's 6 p.m. start at No. 1 Alabama (6-0, 3-0 SEC). The game will be carried on ESPN.
The Tigers have tried to recreate the magic without him, with some success. Johnathon Johnson has been good out of the slot and freshmen Jalen Knox and Kam Scott were explosive in the win against Tennessee-Martin. Knox showed off his speed and hands on the road at Purdue - winning SEC freshman of the week honors that week - and South Carolina. Something is still missing, though. And so far, numbers point to using the tight ends as the best answer for Missouri right now.
Tight ends could also play a more central role for Alabama today.
Junior Irv Smith Jr. has held his own so far among a talented rotation of wide receivers, with 16 catches for 344 yards and four touchdowns, and senior Hale Hentges (Helias High School) was a short-field monster for the Crimson Tide against Texas A&M three weeks ago, catching second-quarter touchdown passes of 23 and six yards in a 45-23 win. He has three catches for 33 yards this season and in his career has 14 catches for 123 yards. Hentges was also part of two national championship-winning teams, in 2015 and '17.Hentges and Smith were listed as OR at starter on this week's depth chart.
Missouri had trouble pressuring South Carolina a week ago with its front four and tried to compensate by picking spots to bring linebackers. If the Tigers can cover well outside, which they've had trouble with all season, Hentges and Smith could exploit Missouri's safeties.
For the Tigers' offense, Albert Okwuegbunam has been Lock's most reliable target through five games, despite his two costly fumbles. He has seen 38 targets and has 27 catches, both team-high totals by six, for two touchdowns, a two-point conversion and 194 yards. That 71 percent catch rate is best on the team of the seven players that have 10 or more targets this season, and though his 7.2 yards per catch is the lowest among that group, it may often be Missouri's best option against the Crimson Tide.
With Okwuegbunam and Kendall Blanton, the Tigers have two tight ends built for the NFL. Okwuegbunam is listed at 6-foot-5, 255 pounds and Blanton at 6-foot-6, 265, and Alabama's biggest linebacker, strong side Christian Miller, is listed at 6-foot-4, 244 pounds. Blanton has mostly been a run blocker this season, but has also been targeted 19 times and has 11 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown.
The offense under Derek Dooley hasn't elected to throw much out of two tight end sets this season. Thanks to the great work of David Morrison, who still breaks down snaps of Missouri games for Rock M Nation, the Tigers are 9-of-14 for 229 yards when throwing out of 2-TE sets, though those passes haven't all gone to tight ends and none of the three combined attempts against the Bulldogs and Gamecocks went for completions.
If Missouri wants to win this game Lock will have to throw the ball accurately, and Okwuegbunam has been his most-trusted target so far. It's also not out of the question the team tries to go against the tendencies it has established to fool the Tide, at least for a short while.
III
Missouri's odds are long tonight, significantly against the Tigers pulling off what would be the biggest upset in program history since joining the Southeastern Conference, and perhaps of all time.
Alabama is a four-touchdown favorite for today's 6 p.m. game on ESPN at Bryant-Denny stadium and has outscored conference opponents 172-61 thus far, for an average win of 57-20. Missouri enters in the middle of a two-game slide with a porous pass defense that looks like a terrible matchup against the Crimson Tide's receiving corps and sophomore quarterback sensation Tua Tagovailoa.
The Tigers are at a talent and coaching disadvantage, which is less an insult directed at Barry Odom and his staff than it is a compliment of Nick Saban, who might be the best college football coach of all time.
That about sums up this game, and looking at whether Missouri will win or lose this game based on football reasons isn't much fun. Instead, here's two reasons why the Tigers will win, and two reasons why they'll lose, that have nothing to do with the game itself.
Why Missouri will win
For both reasons: coincidental history. Eight years ago this week, South Carolina beat Alabama, defending national champs and ranked No. 1, 35-21 in Columbia, S.C. The Gamecocks were the last SEC East team to beat the Crimson Tide.
It was a Steve Spurrier masterpiece, and a game that elevated Stephen Garcia's name to a national stage alongside wide receiver Alshon Jeffery's and running back Marcus Lattimore's.
And 15 years ago this week, Gary Pinkel delivered the first signature moment of what would become a legendary coaching career at Missouri, as the Tigers upset No. 10 Nebraska to end a 24-game Cornhusker win streak. Individual brilliance from Brad Smith and two trick plays deflated Nebraska's confidence late in the game as Missouri scored 27 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.
If you believe in some kind of divine or celestial force that cares to influence college football games, the stars are aligned for an upset.
Why Missouri won't win
The crowd. Bryant-Denny holds close to 102,000 fans, and while Saban has complained that attendance, especially in the student section, has been lacking, that may change today.
It's a nationally-televised game, and the first home night game for the Tide this season, which means the temperature will be bearable for more than two hours. It's also homecoming.
To further improve crowd energy and retention, Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne announced earlier in the week that the 4th quarter tradition of singing the '80s country stars Alabama's hit 'Dixieland Delight' - conditionally. The song was removed after the 2014 Iron Bowl because fans couldn't resist ad-libbed references to SEC foes that were deemed too vulgar by the university. Today is a test run to see if Tide fans can behave themselves during the song, and the decision to return the song has been very popular.
The other reason: NASCAR is at Talladega this weekend.
Enough said.
Related Media: Missouri Tigers Football Podcast [Alabama preview, Oct. 13, 2018]