Dear Editor:
Recently I heard University of Missouri Professor Dr. Michael Urban speak on climate change. He explained climate is complex and best described in aggregate terms using probability.
Patterns and trends emerge as we include more time and area. In 2014 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, charts showed high temperatures worldwide. The 2015 diagram depicts even higher temperatures. By March 2016 the NOAA chart contains only two areas of the world with below average temperatures. They are the ocean near Greenland and Antarctica where, unfortunately, the cooler temperatures are due to melting glaciers.
Humans are now the dominant force in climate change, as scientists began learning a century and a half ago. In 1859 Irish scientist John Tyndall documented how carbon dioxide absorbs and holds the sun's heat. Methane, nitrous oxide and water vapor act similarly so he called them greenhouse gases. In 1904 Svante August Arrhenius, a Swedish scientist, said industrial advances could increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the air significantly. His prediction was accurate. The atmospheric carbon dioxide level was 280 parts per million then, but it has grown to 400 parts per million.
Urban states there is no doubt scientific data confirms climate change is occurring. Using models, scientists predict the upward temperature trends will continue. Models show more temperature extremes. They predict much of the western part of the country will be significantly drier while eastern sections may be wetter. Unfortunately, much of the rain will come too fast to benefit agriculture and will increase flooding.
We already see adverse impacts around the world. In Central Missouri last year, annual rainfall was below normal until the seven inches and record floods in December. Before the current showers, Central Missouri was nearly six inches behind normal in 2016.
The National Wildlife Federation concluded global warming increases the number and severity of wildfires due to warmer and drier conditions. The Union of Concerned Scientists determined wildfires in the western United States occur four times as often, burn over six times the area and last nearly five times as long compared to 1970 - 1986.
NOAA confirms the last 12 months have all set global heat records per information dating back to 1880. Unless we significantly reduce fossil use, this trend will only get worse.
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