It's hard to bet against the New York Yankees. All the legends. All the history. All the championships.
But it's time to declare their time has passed, at least for this season.
All of a sudden, the Yankees have grown old. Real old. So old they should try to work out some sort of sponsorship deal with AARP. Heck, it's going to seem like old-timer's day all summer at Yankee Stadium. The only way you'll be able to tell any difference is when Yogi Berra rides out in a car, which means it actually is old-timer's day. (Then again, he's only 87; the Yanks might have plans to put him behind the plate.)
Sorry, there's just no way to see this group of banged-up geezers getting back to the playoffs, unless everyone else in the AL East falls apart.
"If we win, then we're experienced," shortstop Derek Jeter said, still in the midst of his comeback from a broken ankle. "If we lose, we're old."
We're betting on the latter. You can't ignore those numbers on the birth certificates.
Closer Mariano Rivera is 43 and coming off major knee surgery. Starting pitcher Andy Pettitte is closing in on his 41st birthday. Outfielder Ichiro Suzuki is 39. Jeter will turn 39 before the All-Star break.
"It makes me feel kind of young," quipped outfielder Matt Diaz, who'll turn 35 on Sunday.
If there were a true mix of old and young, that would be one thing. Experience has its place. But the Yankees, with their never-ending quest to win yesterday, have found themselves saddled with a long-in-the-tooth roster unlikely to hold up over the grind of a 162-game schedule. It's struggling just to answer the bell for spring training - the Yanks lost their seventh straight exhibition game Friday.
The opening-day lineup is expected to include only two players in their 20s - outfielder Brett Gardner (who will turn 30 before the season ends) and catcher Francisco Cervelli. The average age of the regulars will be nearly 33, and that doesn't include Alex Rodriguez, who's 37 but played like he was 137 last October.
A-Rod is recovering from hip surgery and not expected back until midseason, though that's probably a blessing (other than having to pay him). Rodriguez has grown old faster than anyone on a team filled with aging stars, perhaps because of all that junk he was putting in his body years ago.
The pitching staff is much the same story.
Ace CC Sabathia is a relative youngster at 32, but he's recovering from offseason surgery to remove bone spurs from his left elbow. Next up are 38-year-old Hiroki Kuroda and Pettitte, who's already retired once and come back. There's some kids at the end of the rotation, but Phil Hughes is sidelined with a bulging disc, Ivan Nova pitched poorly down the stretch last season, and David Phelps is unproven.
After Rafael Soriano declined an option to return, the Yankees had little choice but to count on Rivera handling the closer role for another season, even though he tore up a knee shagging flies in batting practice less than a year ago.
Rivera, like many of his teammates, has yet to take part in an actual spring-training game.
A word of warning to Yankees fans: If you're coming to Florida anytime soon, count on paying full price to watch a bunch of guys who likely will be in Triple-A this season. I caught the Bombers a couple of times in the past week and barely even recognized "em. Most of the important work is going on in Tampa, where simulated games and extended batting practices are the order of the day.
Yet, despite all evidence to the contrary, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner insisted he's excited about his team. Maybe he's just in a state of denial.
"I think we've got a good mix of young players and veterans," he said. "There's been a lot of talk about our age, but I like having those veterans. I like the age. I like the experience, and I think it's great for the young players to have that around."
If only there were some actual young players for all that experience to rub off on.
With Rodriguez's status in doubt, the Yankees picked up 33-year-old Kevin Youkilis to take over at third base and 35-year-old Travis Hafner to handle the designated hitter duties. That passes for a youth movement in New York.
Cervelli shrugged off any suggestion these Yankees are destined to fall back in the standings after winning the division 13 of the last 17 years, and missing the playoffs only once since the strike-shortened 1994 season.
"Every year, it's the same thing," the catcher said. "People have opinions. But you know what? When the season starts, these guys know what they've got to do. We're always going to be in (contention)."
The top of the Yankees' Web site declares, "A Timeless Legacy."
Only it looks like time has run out.