Elections usher in GOP dominance at state Capitol

The Republican sweep is complete.

Led by President-elect Donald Trump, Republican candidates rolled to victory in all of Missouri's major offices Tuesday as the GOP capped a rise to power 15 years in the making.

When the newly elected officials begin work in January, Republicans will hold the Missouri governor's office, nearly all of its other statewide executive offices and supermajorities in both legislative chambers. That means Republicans can enact virtually any measure they want, so long as they work together.

First up could be a right-to-work law barring mandatory union fees in the workplace - a campaign pledge of Governor-elect Eric Greitens that GOP legislative leaders had been unable to enact over the veto of Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon.

New ethics laws also could be coming - if Greitens makes good on another campaign pledge by persuading some hesitant Republican senators to accept limits on lobbyists gifts.

Additional restrictions on abortion and liability lawsuits also appear likely.

The rise of Republican dominance traces to 2001, when the GOP won control of the Senate for the first time in more than 50 years. Republicans won the House the next year. Then Republican Matt Blunt won the governor's office in 2004, ushering in four years in which Republicans flexed their newfound power to enact a pro-business agenda.

Yet Republicans still didn't fully control state government and lost ground in 2008, as Democrats won every statewide executive office except for lieutenant governor. Gradual gains finally led to Republican supermajorities in both legislative chambers as a result of the 2012 elections. But it wasn't until Tuesday that Republicans swept Democrats out of most other statewide executive offices.

Come January, State Auditor Nicole Galloway will be the lone Democrat. But she was appointed to the post by Nixon after elected Republican Auditor Tom Schweich killed himself in 2015. And Galloway is likely to face a strong Republican challenge in 2018.

On Tuesday, Republicans won with political outsiders, such as Trump, Greitens and Attorney General-elect Josh Hawley, none of whom had ever run for office before. But they also won with a political insider, U.S. Sen Roy Blunt, and a familiar family name - Secretary of State-elect Jay Ashcoft, the son of former governor, U.S. senator and attorney general John Ashcroft. Republicans also won with a pair of state senators - Lt. Governor-elect Mike Parson and Treasurer-elect Eric Schmitt - who had little statewide name recognition.

In short, Republicans won because they were Republicans, not Democrats.

"It was tidal wave, and no break wall was going to prevent it from flooding over Democrats," said David Turner, a spokesman for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris Koster.

A former Republican and current attorney general, Koster had been endorsed by the National Rifle Association, Missouri Farm Bureau and other agricultural groups that typically back Republicans. But that wasn't enough, and Koster may have hurt his chances with a last-moment radio ad featuring an endorsement from President Barack Obama. Greitens' campaign recorded the ad and replayed it as a robocall to prospective voters.

"The Democrats have in surprising ways lost their ability to appeal to people outside of the urban areas," said Peverill Squire, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-Columbia. He added: "Even when they had a Democrat who should have had some appeal to Republicans, (Republican voters) weren't interested."

Voter turnout also played a role in the election results. The two Democratic-leaning urban centers of St. Louis and Kansas City combined for about 50,000 fewer voters in this year's election when compared with 2012, said Terry Jones, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis.

The Republican sweep means the GOP will have a deep bench of experienced candidates for future elections.

Missouri Democrats, meanwhile, have some regrouping to do.

"They've probably got four years in the deep wilderness to figure it out," Squire said.

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