University study ranks Missouri 14th best for state 'fiscal health'

For the second year in a row, Missouri government's "fiscal health" is the nation's 14th best, a George Mason University study reported.

The study, released Wednesday and written by Eileen Norcross and Olivia Gonzalez for the Arlington, Virginia, school's Mercatus Center, is based on the fiscal year 2014 comprehensive annual financial reports (CAFRs) of the 50 states and Puerto Rico and ranks states' fiscal solvency using 14 metrics assessing the states' abilities to meet short-term bills and longer-term obligations.

The 2014 business year reports were the most recent available comparing all state governments.

The Mercatus Center report also is based on the idea that "financial information can help determine whether governments are accountable and responsible stewards of public dollars. It can also point to warning signs of fiscal weakness."

The report analyzed state finances according to "five dimensions of solvency," including "cash, budget, long-run, service-level, and trust fund solvency," with the five dimensions combined to produce an overall ranking.

"It is important to stress at the outset that the underlying fiscal metrics are more meaningful than the state's rank," the study's authors wrote. "The rank is a score of relative performance, whereas the underlying metrics measure the actual short-run and long-run solvency of the state."

The report showed Missouri's 14th place ranking was based on:

Having between 2.26 and 4.49 times the cash needed to cover short-term liabilities - ranked 12th in the nation.

Revenues exceeding expenses by 2 percent, producing a surplus of $98 per capita - 31st.

Net assets being 7 percent of total assets, on a long-run basis, and total liabilities being 18 percent of total assets - 15th.

Comparing taxes, revenue and spending with personal income - 6th.

Total debt being $3.79 billion, with unfunded pension liabilities at $78.11 billion, and other post-employment benefits (OPEB) at $2.47 billion - equal to 34 percent of total state personal income, or 31st.

The report ranks Alaska, Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Florida, Utah, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Montana as the top 10 most fiscally solvent states, while Kentucky, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut rank as the bottom five.

Gov. Jay Nixon's spokeswoman, Channing Grate, noted Alaska's bond rating recently was downgraded earlier this year from AAA to AA+ - based on the long-term worldwide crash in oil prices.

Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory that is facing potential bankruptcy, was ranked 51st in the study.

Grate told the News Tribune on Wednesday they were reviewing the Mercatus Center report.

"But it is important to note that Missouri has a spotless AAA credit rating from all three independent rating agencies," she said. "This rare distinction is the gold standard, and it sets us apart from most other states."

Missouri has had a AAA rating since the Warren Hearnes administration.

Grate also provided praise for Missouri from the three credit rating agencies.

FitchRatings said: "Missouri remains extremely well-positioned to deal with economic downturns, with very strong gap-closing capacity in the form of its control over revenues and spending, and a demonstrated willingness to take timely budgetary action."

The 168-page George Mason University Mercatus Center report begins: "The finances of state governments continue to be shaped by a sluggish economy and steady but modest revenue growth since the recovery from the Great Recession of 2008 began in 2011.

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