State agriculture officials feel optimistic drought conditions will ease as winter approaches, they said at a Thursday afternoon Drought Assessment Committee meeting.
The Missouri Department of Natural Resources’ committee met in Jefferson City, and officials with the DNR and the Missouri Department of Conservation said they feel drought abatement measures taken by the state are helping livestock farmers.
During the past three weeks, drought conditions remained unchanged in Mid-Missouri, according to a weekly drought monitor released Thursday morning by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Portions of western Callaway County, northern Cole County and northern Moniteau County still sit in exceptional drought, the second-worst drought condition on the USDA’s four-level scale.
National Weather Service Hydrologist Mark Fuchs said heavy rains in mid-August and early September helped much of the state but missed most of Central Missouri.
“Many of those areas got gypped,” Fuchs said. “So they are kind of lagging.”
Pat Guinan, a climatologist in the University of Missouri College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources, said as the state heads into fall, October and November could bust the drought. The driest conditions will likely be in the northwest part of the state, and the wettest conditions will likely be in the southwest part of the state, Guinan said.
“Right now, we’re at the best opportunity to put a dent in it,” he said. “We still have some time, and the next four to five weeks are probably going to be pretty critical climatologically.”
Columbia Regional Airport received just 26 inches of rain since Oct. 1 , 2017, Guinan said. NWS data show, since Oct. 1, areas around Jefferson City have received 2-12 inches less rain than normal. When rain rolled through the area in August, it did not replenish many of the soils around the area, he said.
“What we saw in August maybe made the cracks a little thinner, but we did not see much runoff because of the conditions, ” Guinan said. “So surface water levels are still running pretty low.”
In July Gov. Mike Parson activated the Drought Assessment Committee to formulate ways to abate the worst of the drought and to dole out aid to farmers. Parson, the DNR and Conservation department announced two programs in July specifically to help livestock farmers.
The first allowed livestock farmers to haul up to 5,000 gallons of water per day from 28 conservation areas and five state parks. Officials on the committee said despite high interest, only one farmer in northwest Missouri pumped water from a conservation area.
A lottery also allowed farmers to hay about 900 acres of state land at 15 locations in Missouri, including Rock Bridge Memorial State Park in Columbia and Ha Ha Tonka State Park near Camdenton. Kurt Boeckman, the agricultural liaison for the DNR, said only two of those locations have been hayed so far.
“They’re really just waiting for that last rain we had to develop a little more forage,” Boeckman said. “I think they’re waiting for that perfect opportunity for all the cool-season grasses, which are likely to come through in the next month or so.”
He said, heading into the winter, the DNR still feels concerned about farm pond levels on livestock farms. The NWS forecast a colder than average October, which could help improve drought conditions, Fuchs said. Overall, the NWS thinks temperatures during the winter will be slightly above average.
An El Niño forecast for this winter could drive rain into parts of the southern United States though, Fuchs said. Whether wet conditions come this winter could depend on the strength of the El Niño, Fuchs said.
“If the El Niño is a relatively strong one, that pattern of wet down south probably is a pretty good outlook,” he said. “But if it’s a weak El Niño, there’s a lot of things that could mess up that forecast.”