Drought effects persist through rain

Sally Ince/ News Tribune
Keith Fork, a cattle farmer near Jefferson City, feeds his young herd of cows Wednesday September 12, 2018 at his farm. Fork also started feeding some of his cattle hay since July 4th due to drought conditions this year.
Sally Ince/ News Tribune Keith Fork, a cattle farmer near Jefferson City, feeds his young herd of cows Wednesday September 12, 2018 at his farm. Fork also started feeding some of his cattle hay since July 4th due to drought conditions this year.

As Keith Forck drove through the knee-high grass of his pasture just east of Jefferson City, there were few signs of the crippling drought that stripped many Mid-Missouri cattle pastures of vegetation this summer.

"It didn't grow a lot, but it was amazing how it tried to grow," Forck said. "Now, with cooler temperatures, it's looking good."

Heavy rains over the past month brought an end to the drought across much of the state. Cattle farmers like Forck said the drought forced them to begin feeding hay much earlier than normal and some farmers may be faced with tough decisions in the months ahead.

As row crop harvests begin, farmers also said hot temperatures and a lack of moisture this summer will cause yields and farm income to fall.

Forck began feeding his 140 "mama cows" and 40 yearling heifers hay July 4, months earlier than normal. With the way his pasture bounced back, he took all but the calves he's weaning from their mothers off of hay feed.

"We weaned the calves the first part of August because of the drought and started feeding them, versus mama having to feed them," Forck said.

Some of Forck's young cows showed signs of stress and got weak because of the drought, he said.

"It was more stressful on the young mamas that are still trying to grow themselves," Forck said. "They're trying to produce milk or trying to live life."

More help needed

National Weather Service Hydrologist Mark Fuchs said a hot June in areas around Jefferson City exacerbated drought conditions.

Fuchs said Mid-Missouri had the fourth warmest June and the fourth most occurrences in June with days above 90 degrees. Overall, he said, this was the eighth-hottest meteorological summer - the months of June, July and August- on record.

Over the past several weeks, drought conditions began to ease statewide.

In mid-August, extreme drought conditions - the third-level on the U.S. Department of Agriculture's four-level drought severity scale - covered large portions of northern and southwestern Missouri.

Like the past three weeks, extreme drought conditions still cover parts of northern Cole, western Callaway and northwestern Moniteau counties, the latest USDA drought monitor shows. Moderate and severe drought conditions now grip smaller portions of all three counties than in past weeks.

Areas around Jefferson City received between 0.5-5 inches more rain than normal over the past 30 days, according to NWS data. Some parts of Cole County, like where Forck's farm lies, are in either abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions.

Jameson Morrow farms cattle just south of Jefferson City. Unlike Forck, the rains did not help his pasture much.

Grass usually does about two-thirds of its growing in the spring and one-third in the fall, Morrow said. But right now, grasses are using all of their energy to stay alive, so his grass has not recovered yet.

"There's stuff to nibble on," he said. "It's hard to come back from that with no rain. Everything is green, but it's not growing."

Missouri Farm Bureau Vice President Todd Hays said hay crops are about half of what they normally are at this time of year because of the lack of precipitation at the beginning and middle of the growing season.

As the row crop harvest begins, corn and soybean farmers likely will see decreased yields, Hays said. Hot conditions, combined with rain, helped corn crops grow fast early in the growing season, he said. Once the prolonged periods without rain hit in June, crops started to show signs of stress.

"The crops can tolerate something for a little while, but not for an extended period," Hays said.

Corn plants struggled to stay alive during the summer and did not have the energy to produce kernels, he said. Plants typically get a reprieve from hot temperatures during cool summer nights below 60 degrees, he noted.

That did not happen as often as normal.

This June had the fewest occurrences of nights below 60 degrees, Fuchs said.

Late in the growing season, many farmers suffered wind damage to corn crops because corn plants cannibalized their stalks to stay alive, Hays said. This weakened stalks.

"Plants shut down," he said. "It took everything a plant had to make an ear and give a crop."

Robert Alpers serves as chairman of the Jefferson City-based Missouri Soybean Merchandising Council. The organization works to market soybeans and promote soybean research.

Rain in August helped late-season soybeans, which matured and produced the edible pod part of the plant in late August. Early-season soybeans hit the reproductive stage in early August, and the rain did not help them, Alpers said.

"(Early-season soybeans) ran out of time," he said. "Mother Nature said, 'It's time to go into into reproductive mode, and it's time for you to mature.'"

The current drought appeared to start in November when areas around Jefferson City received only 25 percent of the normal amount of precipitation, according to NWS data. Some areas just south of Jefferson City, including where Morrow's farm sits, received as little as 5 percent of the normal amount of precipitation in November, NWS data shows.

The drought lingered into December, when most of Mid-Missouri got between 25-50 percent of its normal amount of precipitation, NWS data shows. January, February and March were significantly wetter, but a dry April offset those soil gains.

Alpers said plants can withstand droughts better if soils are soaked from winter snowstorms.

"We were short from day one," he said. "Then we just never had an abundance."

Feeling pinched

Around the region, the 2012 drought often comes up in conversation within the ag industry. A La Nia in the winter of 2011-12 created drier than normal conditions across two-thirds of the continental United States.

Drought losses in 2012, mostly in the ag sector, nationwide topped $30 billion, according to a 2015 study from USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey. Corn suffered the hardest losses among row crops. Yields dropped 26 percent, according to Rippey's study. Soybean yields managed to drop only 9 percent.

In 2018, the USDA expects corn yields in Missouri to drop from 170 bushels per acre in 2017 to 138 bushels per acre, said Scott Brown, an ag economist at the University of Missouri College of Agriculture. The USDA expects average soybean yields of 53 bushels per acre. Missouri farmers should see soybean yields of 47 bushels per acre, Brown said.

Missouri farmers will be pinched by bumper crops in upper-Midwestern states, Brown and Hays said. In its September World Supply and Demand Report, the USDA forecast corn production of a record 14.83 billion bushels because of record crops in Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio and South Dakota. The agency forecast season-average corn prices 10 cents lower than last month's estimate at $3.50 per bushel.

Soybean yields may hit a record yield of 4.7 billion bushels, with the agency forecasting season-average soybean prices of $7.35-$9.85 per bushel, a decline of 30 cents from previous estimates.

The Missouri Department of Natural Resources estimated losses from the drought of 2012 at $547 million just for livestock producers, according to DNR documents from the time.

Brown said it's too early to know the full economic impact of this year's drought.

In 2011, the USDA estimated Missouri net farm income at $3 billion. In 2012, the state's net farm income dropped to $1.8 billion.

Crop insurance may cover 70-80 percent of losses from this summer's drought, but Missouri farmers likely will break even at best, Hays said.

"Crop insurance is similar to auto or homeowners' insurance," he said. "The only way you're going to get a payment is if you had a loss. It's not a profitable experience."

Morrow, the cattle farmer from Jefferson City, worries spring herd sizes will be small next year. During the hot summer, when farmers try to impregnate female cows by introducing bulls into herds, many bulls stayed under cool shade trees instead of chasing females, Morrow said.

Morrow said farmers could see as many as two-thirds of their females fail to conceive this summer, meaning many cattle farmers around the region may be faced with tough decisions about what to do with ancillary animals and their business in the future.

"I think you're trying to salvage a train wreck in the long term," Morrow said.