Missouri farming groups fear possible trade wars with China and Japan because of new tariffs outlined this month by President Donald Trump.
Trump signed a memorandum Thursday instructing the United States to impose tariffs on about $60 billion worth of Chinese goods. Previously announced tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect Friday, setting off further fears that countries affected will place tariffs on U.S. beef.
Trump announced the plans to place tariffs on Chinese products because of what the White House referred to as Chinese efforts to obtain U.S. technology through intimidation and state-financed acquisition. The White House plans to release a formal list of tariffs in about two weeks.
Missouri Farm Bureau President Blake Hurst said Missouri's soybean industry could be particularly vulnerable to any retaliation by China because the U.S. exports $14 billion worth of soybeans to China each year. If soybean exports fall, it could cause prices to sag.
"We export about half of our soybeans overseas," Hurst said. "Any kind of dispute in export trade is going to be reflected in soybean prices."
Agriculture industries in Missouri contributed $88 billion to the state's economy in 2016, according to the Missouri Department of Agriculture. Soybean exports made up about 23 percent of Missouri commodities exports and had a value of $2 billion in 2016. The American Soybean Association said Thursday it feared retaliation by China against American soybeans.
"There is a real struggle in agriculture to keep everything going right now," American Soybean Association President John Heisdorffer said in a news release. "It's extremely frustrating to have the administration taking aim at our largest trading partner."
After Trump announced the planned tariffs on Chinese goods, China's commerce ministry released a list of 128 U.S. products it might retaliate against. The statement listed U.S. exports worth about $3 billion.
Products like fresh fruit, wine and ethanol could see a 15 percent import tariff imposed by China. Pork products and recycled aluminum could face an import tariff of 25 percent.
In its statement, the Chinese commerce ministry cited the steel tariffs specifically as reason for possible retaliation. The statement did not list soybeans, but farming groups said China could impose tariffs on soy products later.
Ronnie Russell, Missouri Soybean Association vice president, said it's a good sign China showed some reluctance to place tariffs on U.S. soybean imports.
"It's encouraging for the soybean industry," Russell said.
The Trump administration issued last-minute exemptions Thursday from the steel tariffs to some of the United States' largest trading partners and allies including South Korea, the European Union and Brazil. The administration did not exempt close U.S. ally Japan from the steel tariffs.
South Korea is the largest buyer of imported U.S. beef, while Japan is the second largest. Last summer, U.S. cattle farmers also began exporting beef to China after a 13-year ban.
Missouri Cattlemen's Association President Mike Deering said in the short term, impacts from any Chinese tariffs should have little impact on Missouri cattle farmers. Retaliation by Japan could harm cattle farmers in Missouri, though, he said.
"Japan and Korea are critical markets for us," Deering said.
Deering said Missouri cattle farmers have an average herd size of 36 cattle and many cattle farmers throughout the state also farm row crops like soybeans and corn - so any impact on those crops could also hurt cattle farmers.
"The agricultural economy is all linked," Deering said. "We are very concerned about how this could impact the marketplace and our greater community if they're impacted as well."
In 2016, Missouri exported 3 million hogs, totaling $882.6 million. The U.S. exported $1.1 billion worth of pork to China in 2017, making it the No. 3 export market for U.S. pork. The National Pork Producers Council warned Friday Chinese tariffs would have severe economic consequences for pork farmers.
"Higher tariffs on our exports going there will harm our producers and undermine the rural economy," Jim Heimerl, president of the National Pork Producers Council, said in a news release.
Corn exports totaled $1.6 billion and made up 18 percent of all Missouri farm exports in 2016, according to the Missouri Department of Agriculture.
Like Deering, Missouri Corn Growers Association CEO Gary Marshall has concerns about how tariffs on soybeans, pork and ethanol would ripple throughout the ag economy.
Low prices for corn, soybeans and other commodities began hampering the ag economy about five years ago. In March, season-average corn price predictions fell by a dime to $3.15-$3.55 per bushel, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Soybean price estimates remained unchanged in March at $9-$9.60 per bushel.
Last year, the United States pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which farmers hoped would open new markets and increase trade between the United States and 11 other countries.
As other countries threaten to retaliate for the recent tariffs and trade deals are re-negotiated, the United Kingdom is negotiating its exit from the European Union.
All this makes farmers uneasy about the existing trade situation. Still, Marshall feels like the United States is nearing a trade war with countries like China and Japan - but isn't quite there yet.
"World trade is in turmoil," Marshall said.