Cole County has seen the highest sales tax revenue growth during the past 10 years among counties in Missouri, according to a report released last week by Moody's Investor Services.
But the county auditor said those good times might be slowing down.
Between 2007-16, Cole County saw sales tax revenue growth averaging 14.6 percent annually, the report said.
Cole is one of five counties in the state to mark 10 percent or more growth over the last 10 years, along with Henry, Reynolds, Ste. Genevieve and Ripley counties.
"In the period they're looking at, we had a lot of big retail openings," Cole County Auditor Kristen Berhorst said. "We started seeing an increase after the second Walmart was opened on the east side of Jefferson City. Probably the biggest jump, though, came when Sam's Club opened up on Stoneridge Parkway. All those people who had been going to the one in Columbia now didn't have to and stayed down here to shop. That allowed for a bump in the 2014-2016 time period."
Berhorst said growth also occurred when Menards and Kohl's opened along with the other retailers in the Stoneridge Parkway area, all of which occurred in the 10-year period. She noted the best years were in the 2013-16 time frame, when there was 4-5 percent growth in sales tax revenue.
The Moody's report said in the long term, counties' increasing reliance on sales taxes for revenue expansion will "result in more vulnerability to economic downturns, as sales tax revenue performance is tied closely to the business cycle."
"This past year we haven't seen anything new or large open in the retail sector, so that had an effect on us not seeing a lot of growth," Berhorst said. "Our sales tax revenue stayed flat."
As the Moody's reported noted, Cole County hasn't changed its sales tax rate since 2009, when voters approved a permanent half-cent sales tax to fund the county ambulance service. The county has two other half-cent sales taxes - the capital improvements sales tax, which voters have been approving for five-year periods since the 1980s, and the permanent law enforcement sales tax approved in 2007, which funded a new county jail.
Combining the states sales tax rate of 4.2 percent with the county's sales tax rate of 1.5 percent gives Cole County a total sales tax rate of 5.7 percent.
Looking at other Mid-Missouri counties, the average annual sales tax revenue growth for the last 10 years was between 5-10 percent in Boone, Callaway and Osage counties and between 0-2 percent in Miller and Morgan counties, while Moniteau County had zero growth during that time, according to Missouri Department of Revenue figures.
The report also notes property taxes, a more stable revenue stream, account for less than 30 percent of total governmental revenues for counties across Missouri. Sluggish growth in taxable sales going forward will press many counties to seek rate increases to drive revenue gains.
Berhorst agreed with local government officials cited in the Moody's report who pointed to increased online shopping activity as a major reason for slowing taxable retail sales growth.
"There's no doubt they are having an effect on our sales taxes, and we will have to be dealing with it in the future," she said.
In 2017, the report noted, Amazon began charging Missouri online shoppers the local sales tax rate, which should boost local revenues.
Moody's Investors Service is an American financial analysis and credit rating agency.