More than a quarter of Missouri consumers say they are better off now than they were a year ago, and the number of those who believe their personal financial situation will stay the same or improve over the next 12 months has increased.
That's according to the second phase of the fall 2015 Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey released Nov. 24. This phase includes a look at consumers' outlooks on personal finances, buying conditions over the next six months, and business conditions over the next year and the next five years.
According to the survey conducted in September, 26 percent of respondents in Missouri - including Greater Kansas City - said they were better off than a year ago. That's up 5 percent since March.
Additionally, 57 percent expect their personal financial situation to remain the same over the next 12 months, while 32 percent expect it to improve. In March's survey, 52 percent expected their situation to remain the same, while 34 percent expected it to improve.
The area surveyed included Arkansas and Oklahoma. Regionally, 54 percent expect their personal financial situation to stay the same, while 33 percent expect it to improve.
When looking at expectations of business conditions over the next five years, 46 percent of Missourians believe there will be continuous good times. That's the same percentage reported in March. Region-wide, that number is 43 percent.
"More consumers, around one-quarter of respondents, see themselves better off today financially than they were a year ago," said David Mitchell, director of the Bureau of Economic Research at Missouri State University, which evaluates Missouri's data for the survey. "That compares to previous readings that were as low as only one-sixth from the previous year. Furthermore, fully one-third of consumers see themselves better off one year from now. So consumers have definitely been responding positively to the sustained decrease in gas prices and increase in job growth in Missouri.
"However, if you delve into the numbers in a little bit more detail, you can see that some consumers see the possibility of problems on the horizon. For example, the component of the index that measures consumers' expectations for business conditions over the next 12 months has declined nine basis points."
When it came to determining buying conditions, 59 percent of Missourians said the next six months will be a good time to buy household items such as furniture, televisions and refrigerators. That number was down from 60 percent in March.
By comparison, 55 percent of the entire region believes the next six months will be a good time to buy. That's a decline of 4 percent since March.
This round of survey results also includes a Current Conditions Sub-Index and a Consumer Expectations Sub-Index, which follows the model of the national Thomson/Reuters Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
The Current Conditions Sub-Index for Missouri is 96.1, up from March's 91.2, while the regional index is 90.3 for September. The Current Conditions Sub-Index is tabulated from the answers to two questions on the survey: "How is your current financial situation compared with a year ago?" and "What do you think of buying conditions over the next six months?"
Missouri's Consumer Expectations Sub-Index is 79.2, compared to March's 81.3, and a current regional index of 77.5. The Consumer Expectations Sub-Index is tabulated from the answers to three survey questions: "How do you expect your financial situation to change in the next year?" "How do you think business conditions will be in a year?" and "How do you expect business conditions will be in five years?"
These sub-indexes are meaningful in comparison to national indexes or to previous values of Arvest Consumer Sentiment indexes. Higher numbers indicate some combination of consumer satisfaction with their current and expected personal finances, current and expected economic performance, and the purchasing environment. Larger increases indicate more confidence across the three areas.