A mixed outlook for duck season

Numbers high, but limited food and cover and warm weather may limit availability

The Missouri Department of Conservation (MDC) announced duck hunters will again have a 60-day season for 2015-2016 hunting.

The Missouri Conservation Commission set upcoming Missouri waterfowl hunting seasons at its Aug. 19 meeting.

• North Zone: Oct. 31-Dec. 29.

• Middle Zone: Nov. 7-Jan. 5.

• South Zone: Nov. 26-Jan. 24.

• Shooting Hours: One-half hour before sunrise to sunset.

•Daily Bag Limit: Six ducks daily with species restrictions of: 4 mallards (no more than 2 females); 3 scaup; 3 wood ducks; 2 redheads; 2 hooded mergansers; 2 pintails; 2 canvasback (increased from 1 last year); 1 black duck; 1 mottled duck

• Possession Limit: Three times the daily bag limit (18), including species restrictions.

III

According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the total number of North American ducks is estimated to be at a record high for the fourth year in a row at 49.5 million, 43 percent above the long-term average (LTA).

Estimates of breeding populations for various duck species from 2015 survey results are:

• Mallard numbers are similar to the 2014 estimate and 42 percent above their long-term average.

• Blue-winged teal numbers are similar to 2014 and 73 percent above their long-term average.

• Green-winged teal numbers increased by 19 percent, which puts them 98 percent above their long-term average.

• Northern shoveler numbers dropped by 17 percent but still remain 75 percent above their long-term average.

• Gadwall and American wigeon numbers are similar to 2014 and 100 and 17 percent above their long-term averages, respectively.

• Redhead numbers are similar to 2014 and 71 percent above their long-term average.

• Canvasback numbers increased slightly. They are now estimated to be 30 percent above their long-term average.

• Scaup numbers are similar to the 2014 estimate and 13 percent below their long-term average.

• Pintail numbers are similar to 2014 and 24 percent below their long-term average.

III

MDC resource scientists note there are three factors equally or more important than overall numbers in contributing toward a season's outcome: local habitat conditions, weather, and migration timing. They caution preseason outlooks for habitat and weather are less than ideal.

"Wetlands should have plenty of water going into fall, but extensive and repeated flooding over the summer will mean food and cover could be patchy," MDC resource scientist Andy Raedeke said. "Moist-soil seed production will be excellent in wetlands that benefitted from a wet spring and early summer but did not have late-summer flooding. Those that did experience late flooding will likely have poor moist-soil seed production and limited vegetation for cover. Due to flooding, food provided by crops, such as corn, will likely be well below average."

Habitat conditions and weather combine to influence waterfowl migrations.

"The primary uncertainty is how ducks will respond if we have a hunting season with mild weather, plenty of water, and below average food and cover," Raedeke said. "In the absence of significant cold fronts, ducks may disperse throughout the Mississippi Flyway resulting in lower peak numbers in Missouri. Once ducks arrive in Missouri, habitat conditions will influence how long they stay. Species that depend entirely on wetland sources of food may depart sooner than normal.."

He added hunters will need to be flexible in when and where they hunt.

"If it is a mild fall, it will be especially important to time hunts with cold fronts and migration events. Hunters should also be willing to try new locations for potentially better habitat conditions," Raedeke said.