The alchemy of budgeting is a blend of mathematics, prioritization and educated guesswork.
As Jefferson City officials puts the finishing touches on the budget for fiscal year 2015, which begins Nov. 1, they are aware of a discouraging mathematical trend regarding revenues.
Specifically, city revenues are declining.
That's not how the model for tax-supported political entities is supposed to work.
Normal growth is designed to raise tax revenues enough to cover the increased services required by economic growth.
Like the perpetual-motion machine - a theoretical, but unrealistic, concept - budgets don't always work that way.
A budget without revenue growth is difficult; one with decreasing revenues is dismal.
Jefferson City's revenues qualify for the dismal category.
Revenues were (in round numbers): $32.6 million in 2011; $32.5 million in 2012; $30.2 million in 2013; and projected at $28.7 million this year. The proposed $28.9 million in revenues in 2015 is marginally higher. The decrease largely represents a settlement that resulted in declining cell phone taxes, as reported in 2012.
In response to this trend, city officials face three options: raise revenues, specifically taxes and/or fees; cut expenses, largely city services; or energize economic growth.
Raising taxes is the least agreeable option, according to Mayor Eric Struemph and council members who responded to the dilemma in a Sunday News Tribune story.
Some council members said cutting services may need to be explored.
Most popular was stimulating economic development.
"I think our sales tax and property tax will be fine as we move forward, if we're making the right decisions to make this a good business environment," Struemph said.
Economic growth traditionally has been promoted some residents, but opposed by others who prefer the community just the way it is.
The trend of declining revenues suggests, however, economic development may have moved from being desired by some to required for the welfare of everyone.