Gov. Jay Nixon's administration predicted Tuesday that if all eight tax cut bills that lawmakers passed on the General Assembly's last day go into effect, Missouri government could lose just over $425 million a year - and counties, cities and special districts could lose another $350 million each year in sales tax income.
Using the administration's numbers, 46 Mid-Missouri towns and cities would lose at least $12.6 million in sales tax revenues, 10 county governments would take in almost $9.92 million less each year and 30 area school districts would lose more than $4.83 million from the one-cent sales tax for education that voters approved about 30 years ago.
"If they have a sales tax, we have included them and made an estimate of the impact on that jurisdiction," state Budget Director Linda Luebbering told the News Tribune.
Luebbering released numbers showing that Jefferson City's government could lose about $2.5 million a year if all of the proposed changes become law.
Cole County government could lose more than $2.1 million.
And Jefferson City's Public School District would lose over $902,000; the Blair Oaks district would take in almost $120,000 less, and both the Russellville and Eugene districts each might lose more than $61,000.
In Callaway County, Fulton could come up almost $389,000 short, while Holts Summit could lose almost $122,000.
Callaway County's government would face an estimated $434,000 in lower sales tax revenues than in 2013.
The Fulton Public Schools would fall more than $223,000 short, while South Callaway R-2 would have more than $82,500 in lower revenues and New Bloomfield R-3 would miss more than $67,000.
Twelve days ago, on the last day of the General Assembly's session, Nixon told reporters lawmakers "blew up" the state budget they had passed just a week earlier, by passing those eight bills during the session's final eight hours. He claimed the bills will cost state government an estimated $483 million a year in reduced general revenues.
On May 16, Nixon's staff had not had time to calculate the impact on local governments.
"We went back and did a more thorough analysis - and now we're estimating $425 million to the state," Luebbering said. "Of that, $283 million is general revenue."
She noted each local government is impacted differently, depending on the amount of sales taxes voters have approved for them to collect.
"It could actually be a bigger problem for locals, because these particular tax breaks are heavily focused on sales taxes," Luebbering said Tuesday, "and sales taxes tend to be a larger proportion of local budgets than they do the state budget.
"So, local entities that are more reliant on sales taxes are going to be, proportionally, more heavily impacted by these types of cuts."
In order to make comparisons for local governments throughout the state, she said, her staff used the actual 2013 collections for state government and for each local government - then assumed there would be no changes in 2014, 2015 or beyond.
That's why the numbers are an estimate, not an exact prediction.
And the numbers would change if Nixon vetoed any, or all, of the eight bills - and lawmakers sustained the vetoes.
"I think local entities need to, at least, be planning for the potential that they're going to be having less revenue, starting on Aug. 28," Luebbering said. "So, if none of them go into effect, then they will have thought through their budget for no reason.
"But we would rather have them think through it, and be prepared."
Nixon spokeswoman Channing Ansley said Tuesday the governor's staff still is studying the bills, and has announced no decisions on any of the eight measures.
Later today, she said, Nixon will go to St. Louis and Kansas City to discuss "the fiscal impact of the special interest exemptions and giveaways passed by the General Assembly on the final day of the legislative session."
Tax cut supporters often argue that the cuts ultimately will generate more revenues.
"These tax breaks go to existing businesses for doing existing things. They do not require new jobs and do not require new investment," Luebbering said Tuesday. "We don't think that for any given entity that this is going to be something that changes what they had planned to do.
"It's a big impact in total for the state and local governments - but, will it change what any given business does or doesn't do? We have no reason to believe that it would."
Estimated sales tax reductions from 8 bills lawmakers passed May 16
Compiled by the Office of Administration, Budget and Planning division
School districts' Prop C revenues
COLE COUNTY
Jefferson City - $902,562
Blair Oaks R-2 - $119,884
Cole R-5/Eugene - $64,625
Cole R-1/Russellville - $61,746
CALLAWAY COUNTY
Fulton - $223,248
South Callaway R-2/Mokane - $82,654
New Bloomfield R-3 - $67,108
BOONE COUNTY
Columbia - $1,171,395
Southern Boone R-1/Ashland - $153,360
CAMDEN COUNTY
Camdenton R-3 - $426,601
GASCONADE COUNTY
Gasconade R-2/Owensville - $190,650
Gasconade R-1/Hermann - $97.382
MARIES COUNTY
Maries R-2/Belle - $86,983
Maries R-1/Vienna - $51,003
MILLER COUNTY
Eldon R-1 - $195,796
School of the Osage - $190,069
Iberia R-5 - $75,874
St. Elizabeth R-4 - $24,219
Miller R-3/Tuscumbia - $23,585
MONITEAU COUNTY
Moniteau R-1/California - $136,317
Tipton R-6 - $57,268
High Point R-3 - $11,076
Jamestown C-1 - $21,138
Clarksburg C-2 - $12,868
Moniteau R-5/Latham - $8,337
MORGAN COUNTY
Morgan County R-2/Versailles - $144,910
Morgan County R-1/Stover - $67,955
OSAGE COUNTY
Osage R-3/Fatima-Westphalia - $79,575
Osage R-2/Linn - $63,938
Osage R-1/Chamois - $21,443
Impact on counties' sales tax receipts
Cole County - $2,101,512
Callaway County - $434,183
Boone County - $4,570,196
Camden County - $1,256,008
Gasconade County - $300,093
Maries County - $100,672
Miller County - $462,438
Moniteau County - $189,060
Morgan County - $268,996
Osage County - $235,504
Impact on cities' sales tax receipts
COLE COUNTY
Jefferson City - $2,474,383
St. Martins - $10,456
Wardsville - $6,324
Taos - $3,061
Centertown - $2,846
St. Thomas - $1,868
CALLAWAY COUNTY
Fulton - $388,843
Holts Summit - $121,834
Kingdom City - $70,334
Auxvasse - $16,957
New Bloomfield - $4,801
Mokane - $1,451
BOONE COUNTY
Columbia - $5,743,633
Ashland - $666,056
Hartsburg - $621
CAMDEN COUNTY
Osage Beach - $1,141,813
Camdenton - $379,898
Sunrise Beach - $66,180
Village of Four Seasons - $37,110
Linn Creek - $35,250
GASCONADE COUNTY
Owensville - $192,568
Hermann - $124,842
Rosebud - $9,516
Bland - $6,317
Morrison - $577
Gasconade - $242
MARIES COUNTY
Belle - $30,100
Vienna - $20,851
MILLER COUNTY
Lake Ozark - $310,378
Eldon - $253,971
Iberia - $25,924
St. Elizabeth - $3,103
Tuscumbia $1,711
Bagnell - $1,115
Brumley - $638
MONITEAU COUNTY
California - $99,350
Tipton - $32,992
Clarksburg - $878
MORGAN COUNTY
Versailles - $153,600
Laurie - $98,267
Gravois Mills - $3,576
OSAGE COUNTY
Linn - $30,226
Freeburg - $14,485
Westphalia - $5,283
Meta - $3,919
Chamois - $3,647