Missouri government's 2013-14 business year ends at midnight Monday - but the total numbers of revenue and expenses won't be available for a few days.
However, both Gov. Jay Nixon and state Budget Director Linda Luebbering said last week that the final numbers for what often is called FY 2014 likely will be short of the predictions made since November 2012, when the budget for the current business year first was being drafted.
Budget term glossary
[]"The 2013-14 year will either be flat or it will be down," Luebbering told reporters last Tuesday. "Simple math - if we're down this year by a percent instead of being up by (the predicted) 2 or 3 percent, you're going to have a $240 million shortfall there."
Each percentage is worth about $80 million, she explained.
During his news conference announcing more than $1 billion worth of vetoes or withholdings from the budget that goes into effect Tuesday, Nixon said that Missouri wasn't alone in predicting a better revenue picture than the one we have.
"Certainly, all of the states had this lull, for a lot of reasons," the governor said. "You had some capital gains issues."
Capital gains generate income taxes. If you buy a stock or a piece of property, then later sell that for more than you paid, both the state and federal governments impose an income tax on the profit you made.
Some people buy and hold on to a stock or property for years, while others are constantly trading and, therefore, paying capital gains taxes regularly.
But the federal government did a short-term modification of its capital gains taxes, that ended last year - but may have prompted some people to sell more quickly than usual.
"People took their earnings in 2013," Luebbering said, "for a whole host of reasons.
"If you'll recall, in fiscal year 2013, our revenue actually did better than anybody anticipated, with a higher percentage growth than anybody thought we would have. So, I think it pulled revenue out of (fiscal year) 14, back into 13 - and we just didn't anticipate that."
Lobbyist Jim Moody - who once held Luebbering's job, and later was commissioner of the Office of Administration - said it's difficult to calculate the specific impact of capital gains, because it takes a long time - two years - for the federal tax data to be gathered.
Moody also noted that a lot of companies declared extraordinary dividends at the end of 2012, which raised stockholders' tax earnings above normal for the 2013 tax year, adding another blip to the budget projections.
Luebbering also noted many parts of the country, including Missouri and the Midwest, experienced a harsher winter than usual, which "slowed things down a little bit."
Government and business leaders in many states thought the 2013 revenue increases signalled overall improvements in the economy rather than single-year, one-time budget impacts.
But few are losing their optimism.
Nixon said last week: "Clearly, as we look towards the next year, all of us (states) are budgeting good, solid growth for the next year.
"I think that you saw this trough, this income trough that touched a lot of states - some worse than others and us not as bad as some - but you just have to account for it."
Luebbering said she and other budget officials remain confident that Missouri government's income picture will grow about 5.2 percent in the 2015 business year that begins Tuesday.
"The current year is down because of those one-time issues," she said. "We do believe that will start righting itself."
Jason Hoffman, chief financial officer for Jefferson City's Public Schools, noted: "If you look at individual income tax, there is growth."
But is it enough?
Luebbering said Nixon's vetoes and withholdings announced last week were based on disagreements the governor has with bills that lawmakers passed during this year's General Assembly, and were not based on the revenue shortfall for the business year that ends Monday.
However, she said, the amount of money left in the budget after those vetoes and withholdings is based on the assumption that the 5.2 percent income growth prediction in the coming year will come true - although, she acknowledged, the original projections for the state's condition at the end of the new business year, a year from now, won't happen unless the overall growth is closer to 9 percent, because the state is starting the business year from a lower point than was predicted a year ago.
"You build the 2015 budget on the 2014 budget," Moody said. "If we're short this year, won't we be short next year? Nine-to-10 percent growth is very unlikely."
Kris Hilgedick of the News Tribune staff provided some information used in this story.