Understanding Greece's bond swap deal
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Greece has struck a vital debt relief deal with representatives of private investors to avoid a disastrous default. The agreement will help shield Europe's already weak financial system, even though banks, pension funds and other bond investors have to accept multibillion-dollar losses.
Here are some questions and answers about the agreement:
Q: What are the main points of the deal?
A: Banks, hedge funds, pension funds and other private investors who own around €200 billion in Greek government bonds have been asked to forgive Greece 53.5 percent of the face value of those bonds. That could immediately cut Greece's €350 billion ($460 billion) debt pile by €107 billion ($142 billion).
Interest rates on the remaining debt will be an average 3.65 percent compared to around 4.8 percent previously. Greece will also have 30 years to repay those bonds, up from just under seven years.
Overall savings will depend on how many investors agree to participate.
Q: Why is this agreement so important?
A: It is one of two critical steps — the other being deep cuts in government spending — required before Greece could receive a €130 billion ($170 billion) bailout from other countries in Europe and around the globe. Without this bailout, its second in two years, and the debt relief Greece would default on a €14.5 billion bond payment on March 20.
Q: And if Greece were to miss this bond payment, then what?
A: A Greek default would potentially spread the crisis to other eurozone countries, by making investors even more leery of lending to them. And analysts fear it could set off a chain reaction similar to the financial meltdown that occurred in the fall of 2008 and triggered the Great Recession.
Q: Why did private investors agree to a voluntary loss?
A: Without the deal, they risked getting nothing. And many of the same investors also hold debt from other eurozone countries, which would likely lose value in the event of a default.
Q: Might some investors refuse to go along?
A: Yes. However, Greece will soon put new legal clauses into its bonds that would force holdouts to participate.
Q: Aside from the private investors, who else owns Greek debt?
A: Another €50-55 billion ($65.5-72 billion) of Greek government bonds is held by the European Central Bank and other central banks. These are exempt from the writedown, but the central banks will forego profits on those holdings. All told, Greece's debt has reached roughly €350 billion ($459 billion), or more than 160 percent of annual economic output.
Q: Aren't cuts in government spending and other austerity measures helping?
A: Greece's government ran a deficit of 10.6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2011. It has promised the EU and International Monetary Fund that it will achieve a so-called primary surplus — a budget surplus when not counting interest payments on loans — in 2012. That promise hinges on the debt relief from private investors and a harsh austerity program of higher taxes and deep cuts in public spending and wages for at least until 2020.
Q. When was the last time a country defaulted on its debt?
A. The last major country to default on its debt was Argentina in 2002. The country finally managed to negotiate a settlement on its defaulted bonds in 2005.

Comments
Graceful 1 year, 2 months ago
Q: Might some investors refuse to go along?
A: Yes. However, Greece will soon put new legal clauses into its bonds that would force holdouts to participate.
There is no other word for this than wrong.
JCLifer 1 year, 2 months ago
No free market here?
tonto_goldberg 1 year, 2 months ago
It's a completely free market but it's not for small players or people who want a sure thing. It's more like high stakes poker. The rule in bankruptcy is that the player that brings new money gets to make the rules. The article says that a group of investors is making the deal to avoid a default. The remaining investors can take the deal or not. If they don't take the offer their old bonds may become worthless.
tonto_goldberg 1 year, 2 months ago
Those who refuse to go along may hold onto their bonds and watch them become worthless in a default. Those who go along may also lose their money in a default down the road. The investors have to choose where they think they have the best chance of getting some of their money back.
Meanwhile, the austerity program is shrinking the Greek economy, and a shrinking economy doesn't pay off debt faster.
tonto_goldberg 1 year, 2 months ago
The deal in the article is being offered by current bondholders to the country in an effort to salvage some of the investors' money. It would take a lot of audacity for Greece to try to apply new terms to the old bonds but you may be right. I had assumed replacement bonds would be issued with the new terms.
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