Home sales hit 13-year low; slow recovery ahead
Thursday, January 20, 2011
WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of people who bought previously owned homes last year fell to the lowest level in 13 years, and economists say it will be years before the housing market fully recovers.
High unemployment and a record number of foreclosures are deterring potential buyers who fear home prices haven’t reached the bottom. Job growth is expected to pick up this year, but not enough to raise home sales to healthier levels.
“We built too many houses during the boom, and now after the crash, it will take us a long time to get back to normal,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York.
The National Association of Realtors reported Thursday that sales dropped 4.8 percent to 4.91 million units in 2010. That was slightly fewer than in 2008, which had been the weakest year since 1997.
The poor year for sales did end on a stronger note. Buyers snapped up homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million units in December, the best sales pace since May and the 12.8 percent rise from November was the biggest one-month surge in 11 years.
Gains in mortgage rates may have spurred some fence-sitters to buy homes in December before rates moved higher, analysts noted.
The increase was an encouraging sign after a dismal year for home sales, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. But he cautioned against raising expectations for a rapid recovery in housing.
“The job market is still very weak, and unemployment is very high. Until we get more jobs, people will be reticent about buying homes,” he said.
Zandi said home prices would fall another 5 percent this year. Sales of previously occupied homes would likely exceed 5 million. That’s a slight improvement from last year, he said, but it will probably take until 2013 or 2014 for sales to reach a healthy level of 6 million units a year.
Home sales will benefit from an improved hiring market. Many economists predict employers will double the number of jobs added this year compared with 2010. A reason for more optimism is a decline in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits over the past four months.
Last week, applications fell to a seasonally adjusted 404,000, the Labor Department said. That followed a spike in applications in the previous week, which is typical after the holidays end and employers let temporary workers go. Even with the holiday bump and this past week’s decline, the latest figures were only slightly higher than the 391,000 level reached last month — the lowest in more than two years.
Fewer than 425,000 people applying for benefits is considered a signal of modest job growth. Economists say applications must fall consistently to 375,000 or fewer to substantially reduce the unemployment rate.